With wars raging in Ukraine and Israel, escalation and disaster loom, probably more so than at any time during the last decade. The Biden administration, so far, has been competent and sensible in responding to the war in the Middle East. However, Hezbollah and Iran continue to provoke Israel; attack US forces in Syria and Iraq; and could intervene on the side of Hamas.
In these circumstances, any decision the administration takes is laden with danger. Hence, examining the worst strategic blunders the US has made over the past two decades could well inform the White House on how to avoid future disaster. Five of the worst blunders have been arbitrarily chosen although readers may have other nominees.
George W. Bush was responsible for numbers one and three blunders; Barack Obama for number two; and Donald Trump for four and five. Given the many blunders America has made since the new century dawned, competition for selection was keen.
The attacks of September 11th stunned and infuriated the country. George Bush had no option except to respond decisively. US forces were initially deployed into Afghanistan to neutralize al Qaeda and kill or capture Osama bin Laden. The administration then embarked on the “Freedom Agenda,” using the specter of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) as the rationale for invading Iraq. The assumption was that by imposing democracy in Iraq, “the geostrategic framework of the Middle East would be forever altered.” It did change, but for the worse.
The Biden administration confronts a five-front war.
Nation-building was a disaster in Afghanistan. Democracy was impossible to impose on a tribal society. Similarly, the 2003 Iraq invasion provoked an insurgency that still lingers. Consequently, the combination of the decisions made after 9/11 that led to the interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq was the worst foreign policy blunder of this century and possibly much of the past one by bringing seemingly permanent turmoil to the Middle East with no respite in sight.
Number three, made by Bush ’43, was abrogating the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) of 1972. Bush entered office determined to improve missile defense. The ABM Treaty was a limitation. With its abrogation, US and Russian relations were dealt what turned out to be the first fatal blow beginning an irreversible, steady disintegration. And September 11th intervened.
Barack Obama was chastised for declaring “red lines” on Syrian President Bashar al Assad that were not enforced. However, the second biggest US foreign policy blunder was ordering a “strategic pivot” to Asia. Allies in Europe and NATO were surprised and shocked. In the Pacific, allies were terrified about the “pivot” making China an enemy. And that is what happened, guaranteed by Obama’s National Security Strategy.
The military component of the strategy could not have been clearer. The aims were to deter and if war came defeat China along with four other potential adversaries. How could China not assume it had become an American enemy, laying the predicate for the hostility that now defines the US-China relationship?
Donald Trump committed strategic blunders four and five. Number four was cancellation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. If honored by both sides, Iran would never, repeat never, obtain a nuclear weapon. Some might argue that this blunder could have been numbers two or three.
Iran could cheat. That was unlikely because of the intimate presence of the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors and the installed surveillance system. But if Iran cheated, the treaty was useless. Withdrawal from the JCPOA has left no restraint on Iran producing nuclear weapons.
Number five was the imposition of tariffs on the imports of Chinese goods. A huge imbalance in the current account of goods and services favored China. Trump saw the trade imbalance as intolerable.
But the capital account was in America’s favor by hundreds of billions of dollars because of China’s investments here. This was not only wrong headed economic policy. US consumers bore the extra costs imposed by the tariffs. And the tariffs were further nails in the coffin of US-Chinese relations.
The Biden administration confronts a five-front war. Bullets are only flying in two-Ukraine and Gaza. The other two fronts are China, Russia. The most threatening could be here at home in the USA. The dangers are self-evident.
Because of this record of foreign policy blunders, exacerbated by a failing dysfunctional government here, the actions of an eighty-one year old president will be closely monitored and have enormous impact abroad and domestically as well. And they may well determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
He writer is a senior advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council and a published author.