On the eve of the Supreme Court verdict on the re-election of President General Pervez Musharraf, rumours have gathered strength that the government might impose an Emergency or martial law in the country and thus suspend the normal application of the Constitution, allowing the General Musharraf establishment to postpone the January 2008 general elections. The rumours have sown confusion in everyone’s mind, not least Benazir Bhutto’s. She first decided to leave for Dubai on Wednesday night, then cancelled her trip and then rebooked it and left for Dubai early Thursday afternoon. Before leaving she asked the government not even to think of imposing an Emergency or state of martial law. In her judgement, “the people will come out and resist it”. But her departure is ominous. It is as if she knows that something is about to happen which could adversely impact her.If we go 30 years back in history, there is probably ground enough to declare an Emergency. In fact, governments have been so trigger happy with this device that Pakistan has lived most of its life under a state of Emergency. It got so bad after some time that the Emergency seemed like normal life in Pakistan, and even when dictatorship made way for democracy, the politician-ruler felt safer living under conditions of Emergency. So, in 2007, some people might ask: what would be the difference this time? The population lives without rights anyway by reason of the near-extinct writ of the state and its inability to come to its help when warlords maltreat it in territories under their control.While it is true that the state has retreated in Pakistan, the appurtenances of democracy are present as never before. The media is vibrant and there is open discussion among the people, mostly about their rights under democracy. Even the religious parties who once bad-mouthed democracy as a “Western curse” seem to idealise democracy and its fundamental requirement of accountability. All the political parties are functional and are vying for power through an electorate that is ready to vote despite the fear of terrorism. Those who saw the reception Ms Bhutto got in Karachi on October 18 will have to concede that Pakistan is ready for the resumption of the democratic process.However, the election calculus says no one party will come out clearly on top in the forthcoming elections. This is anticipated by the political parties too and they are trying a little harder, and more raucously, than ever to increase their edge against rivals. Popular response too indicates that all the mainstream parties will score well and divide the electoral cake among themselves. The results in January are expected to throw up a party in the lead that will be constrained to form a coalition to attain majority in parliament, which means that the current political tension will subside and Pakistan will try to equip itself to tackle the problems it faces. What are these problems?The problems are related to the very events that are supposed to make the government think of an Emergency. Uppermost among them are the state of law and order and the creeping loss of territory in the NWFP and the Tribal Areas. So far, President Musharraf has been unable to tackle the problem of Al Qaeda terrorism because of lack of political support. Not even the PMLQ is willing to support him whole-heartedly because of its fear of losing the votes of a population “in denial”. If Emergency is imposed, the current political opposition will become more intense and will indirectly join the efforts of Al Qaeda to get rid of President Musharraf and his government. He needs the January election, and he needs more votes in parliament supporting his anti-terrorism drive, before he can take on Al Qaeda. Not having elections will mean more support to Al Qaeda from the people and more defeats for the military in its efforts to dislodge the terrorists from Pakistani territory.The signs are ominous. In Swat, the terrorists are beheading policemen, which is an extension of the Al Qaeda policy to hit the security forces à la Iraq. In the latest attack in Sargodha yesterday, a suicide bomber killed nine air force officers. In Rawalpindi, where the suicide-bomber may have tried to get at President Musharraf, the investigators have declared the incident an Al Qaeda hit. The Supreme Court the same day punished senior police officers and civil servants with jail sentences for having manhandled the chief justice back in March when he was wrongly fired by the President. Unless elections are held and a new government installed, the scene in Pakistan will start looking as if the people, the judiciary and Al Qaeda are on the same side, fighting a ruler of dubious legality.A state of Emergency will draw a firm line between the people and the government. A large number of vested interests connected with the institution of democracy at present will have to take the field against the government at the risk of confrontation. The need is to take on Al Qaeda, not the people of Pakistan. To do this, elections must be held on the appointed day and all efforts should be bent to ensure that the run-up to the polls proceeds without disturbance and the polling day is guarded with everything at the disposal of the state. g The truth in Swat As the security forces in Swat went on the offensive on Wednesday, 20 men of warlord Fazlullah were reported killed, including one of his deputies. A TV channel talked to the father of an ASI beheaded by Fazlullah in the hope of getting him to condemn his son’s killers, but failed. He was too scared. Another TV channel interviewed a scion of the Wali of Swat who condemned the government but refused to be judgemental about Fazlullah, and the channel “forgot” to ask him whether he favoured the closing down of girls’ schools and bombing of music shops and the thrashing of barbers who shaved men. The scion of the Wali ended up condemning the jirga which has asked the caretaker government in Peshawar to come and save the people of Swat from tyranny. The jirga members can be shot, he should have said.The truth is that Al Qaeda has Swat by the throat. Life is being squeezed out of a place once famed for its hospitality and good life. After the arbitrary closures in the market by Fazlullah, livelihood has become tough in the valley unless one joins the smugglers backing the warlord. Islamabad has to face up to the situation bravely, and it needs political support for this, which it can only derive from the coming general elections. If the operation succeeds in short order, at least the people of Swat will come out of their forced denial. *