This column has forecast how the Arab Spring could too easily metastasize when or if the powerful causal forces of great public discontent are not met. What is interesting is to speculate whether or not the power of discontent could spread and not merely within the region. What is happening in Europe and in the US provides a sombre warning to draw from the Arab Spring. In Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Bahrain and Yemen, popular uprisings grew not from religious ideology or zealotry but basic needs. In an increasingly networked world, people want jobs, economic prosperity, hope for the future and political empowerment. Twice former national security advisor Brent Scowcroft calls this the need for dignity. However, in essence, it is a cry for good or just better governance. Sadly, governance is not the only problem. Economic weakness due to a lack of resources, basic infrastructure or the absence of a market system is a huge obstacle. Hence, in Egypt or Yemen, even if new governments were motivated to reform and progress, it will require decades to raise standards of living. Libya of course has oil. Perhaps a new government could make a difference although Iraq may prove the rule not the exception in failing to exploit vast natural resources. Move north to Europe and west to the US and observe what could be tectonic political shifts. In response to government fiscal cuts and grave economic conditions, outbreaks and protests in Greece, Portugal and Spain have intensified. In the UK, public uproar over cuts to education may be the start not the finish of the need to reduce public spending and debt. The elections there two weeks ago were a blow to the Liberal Democrats as supporters reacted adversely to the new budget in the voting booth. Ironically, the cause of these still nascent but possibly escalating protests in the west is remarkably similar to those of the Arab Spring: governance. With the budgets of most countries filled with oceans of red ink for the indefinite future, tough choices and tradeoffs need to be made. That is one reason why defence spending in nearly all European countries is headed downwards at a rapid pace. Similar symptoms are clear in the US. Congress is paralysed for the moment to take action on raising the debt ceiling limit from the current $ 14.3 trillion. By deft acts of magic, the Treasury Department has postponed the day of reckoning to early August. However, with presidential elections now a year and a half away, neither the Republicans nor the Democrats wish to take the first step and invite the wrath of the other party in criticising whatever plan or choices emerge. Still, procrastination will end this summer. The reality and heart of the problem is that in the west, generally speaking, governments have produced and financed so many programmes that dependencies bordering on addiction have been created from education to social engineering to healthcare and retirement. Concurrently, the US has been fighting two plus wars depending on how one views Libya, and is spending all told over a trillion dollars a year on its national security. So where to cut? On top of that, unlike the Arab Spring, ideology counts in the US and in Europe as well. The Republicans disavow the notion of tax increases. The Democrats hedge on cutting too deeply into social programmes. The consequence is that the ship of state is headed at gathering speed at an enormous and unmovable fiscal iceberg. With many captains on deck so to speak, the helmsman is getting no orders to change course or reduce speed. What will happen is far from certain. History provides at best unhappy examples. The US sprung from a revolution. George Washington had to deal with a whisky rebellion; Abraham Lincoln with a civil war. During the 1960s, the US faced massive riots and looting over race, Vietnam and other social issues from Detroit to Watts in California. A now retired US army general reminisced that his first firefight came not in Vietnam but in Washington, DC, only hours after Richard Nixon’s first inauguration in January 1969 during one major riot that military forces had to quell. Good or better governance will not arise of its own accord or happen overnight. What the Arab Spring should be telling us is that at some point, when governance fails, public outrage grows and becomes uncontainable. That is not isolated to Cairo, Sana or Damascus. People have common motivators irrespective of where they live. Politicians need to be reminded of these facts of life. This is not 1789 in France, 1848 in Europe or 1917 in Russia. But unless governments get a better grip on their responsibilities and act accordingly, who knows what lies ahead. The writer is Chairman of the Killowen Group that advises leaders of government and business, and Senior Advisor at Washington DC’s Atlantic Council