During the first ‘martial law’ some 50 odd years ago, Pakistan did not have a free press and no TV either. All the major newspapers were taken over by the government but the people that did the day to day work in these newspapers were still quite independent. News was strictly censored but we learned to read ‘between the lines’. Most importantly, when the official press repeatedly and ‘extravagantly’ denied a news story that had never been published in the first place, we could figure out that it was probably true. For instance, when a news item stated that ‘40 people were not injured in an anti-government riot’ we could tell that there had been an anti-government riot and many had indeed been injured.
My favourite headline will always be from the 1964 presidential election where the front page in the Pakistan Times carried a picture of Ayub Khan addressing a public meeting somewhere in East Pakistan. The caption under the picture said it all: “President addresses a ‘mammoth’.” The word meeting after mammoth was obviously deliberately left out! The reason why all this came to mind at this time is due to repeated ‘denials’ about an ‘impending coup’ by the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), the Lord Chief Justice (CJ) of Pakistan, major opposition personalities and all those who would like to see the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) government and President Asif Ali Zardari sent packing. Of course when there is such widespread denial then clearly there is some truth behind the story.
The headline in this newspaper on Saturday (December 24, 2011) was also interesting. The headline said: “Democracy survives, once again.” Just saying that democracy survives would have been enough but the addition of once again clearly was meant to remind the readers of this newspaper that democracy in Pakistan has been under threat not this once but again and again. Indeed everybody and her aunt in Pakistan knows that democracy or at least the present ‘democratic dispensation’ has been under severe threat during the last few weeks and not just for the first time.
It is well accepted that whenever the Pakistan Army and its ‘high command’ feel that the morale of the army is being weakened, the easiest way to restore morale for them is to blame it all on the ‘bloody civilians’ and kick them out. The question of course is that why a ‘memo’ of dubious provenance sent more than six months ago is able to undermine the morale of a fighting force laced with nuclear weapons.
For all practical purposes, the Pakistan Army runs Pakistan. But the army needs a Pakistan that can pay for it. If the country becomes incapable of supporting the army for any reason, then all bets are off. Therein lies the conundrum. If the army takes over the country at this time, who will it blame if things keep on getting worse, especially if the Americans stop pouring in dollars?
However, all detractors of the ‘establishment’ must also understand that the army is actually fighting against a vicious enemy at this time. The ‘jawans’ and the junior officers doing all the fighting are not really a part of the ‘establishment’. They are much like the rest of us ordinary Pakistanis and they worry about exactly the sort of things the rest of us are worried about. And frankly, most ordinary Pakistanis have a soft corner for these young men who are out there risking their lives for us.
Before we go further, it is perhaps worthwhile to repeat the basic stuff. The army high command never liked the PPP and the same is true today. Many Pakistanis are extremely disappointed with the PPP-led government at the Centre. President Zardari is unpopular and a lot of people blame him for the problems being faced by the country at this time. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the main opposition party in Pakistan, would like to see the end of the PPP-led government and early polls but it does not want a ‘military’ takeover under any circumstances. Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is rapidly emerging as a third option on the political scene. It is, however, of interest to note here that the only major political figure that has not come out against a military takeover is Imran Khan. Most important, however, is the role of the Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan. The SC has a lot on its plate that could impact the status of the present political setup.
So then what next? President Zardari is not going to resign, unlikely that he can be impeached and short of some unforeseen judicial decree that makes him incompetent to be president or else an army coup, he is here to stay till the end of his constitutional term. As far as the National Assembly (NA) is concerned, there the PPP-led government can fall if all of its coalition partners abandon it at the same time — possible, but unlikely. And if the PPP government does fall, who or what replaces it? The most probable outcome of the fall of the PPP government is that the NA will be dissolved and new elections will be held. But there is a ringer. Even if the NA stands dissolved, the provincial assemblies will continue to function unless the sitting chief ministers ask for them to be dissolved. As far I am concerned, the chief minister of Punjab will not dissolve the Punjab Assembly without a guarantee that he will be re-elected.
All this could lead to a mess, sitting provincial assemblies and elections being held for the NA. And who is going to lead an interim government at the Centre and who will appoint the interim setup? All of this is much too complicated with too many variables to manage so my best guess is that the present setup will continue and our TV anchors will still have Zardari to fulminate about for some more time.
The writer has practised and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at [email protected]