The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is not acting like a traditional parliamentary opposition party. After the first few months when it was a coalition partner of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the PML-N has sat in opposition. Many politicians, especially Imran Khan, often refer to the PML-N as the ‘friendly opposition’. I believe that Imran Khan has a point. Let us just consider the role PML-N has played so far.
First, all major legislation passed by this parliament has been passed with the support of the PML-N, especially the amendments to the constitution. Obviously, devolution of presidential powers to the prime minister as well as the increased autonomy for the provinces are issues that all pro-democracy politicians support, so at least in this matter the PML-N gets a pass. But even so, there have been other initiatives including the latest about the resumption of NATO supplies through Pakistan where the PML-N has supported the PPP point of view, albeit with some minor alterations. Frankly, I do not remember the PML-N initiating any major legislation and seeking support from the PPP coalition partners. In short, the PML-N has not taken up its role as the major opposition party or a ‘government in waiting’ with any vigour.
Here perhaps it is worthwhile to iterate that the term ‘loyal opposition’ means that the party in opposition is loyal to the state but not that it supports the government. The major opposition party in the UK has ‘shadow cabinet members’ who develop legislative initiatives and create alternative policies that will be put in place if they win the next election. The PML-N has done nothing to present an alternate vision of governance and as far as I am concerned, I have no idea what a PML-N government will do that is different from what is being done right now.
Second, the PML-N has decried the performance of the present government quite vociferously and yet it has never moved a ‘no-confidence’ resolution against the PPP government, even at times when the PPP government seemed to be tottering and had for all practical purposes lost the support of its major coalition partners. In a parliamentary system, the major opposition party always tries to unseat the government whenever it seems to be shaky. This fact upends the PML-N’s stated policy that it wants to end the PPP government as soon as possible. The reverse is equally important. Even though the PML-N has a ‘minority’ government in Punjab, the PPP as the major opposition party has never moved a resolution of no-confidence against it.
Third, even though the PML-N kept demanding early elections, and had declared that it might dissolve the Punjab Assembly before the Senate elections, it just gave in and even collaborated with the PPP for these elections in Punjab. Words aside, it has become entirely obvious that the PML-N is not interested in early elections. As I have said in these pages before, Mian Shahbaz Sharif, the PML-N Chief Minister (CM) of Punjab, will under no circumstances give up his chief ministry even a day before he has to. As such, the PML-N, contrary to its stated policy of demanding early elections, does not really want to have that happen.
There are a few interpretations of the present political landscape that explain why the PML-N has not played its role as a major opposition party. The most obvious explanation is of course that the PML-N does not want to give up its ‘minority’ Punjab government until it has to. Therefore, to keep its position in Punjab, it has to make sure that the PPP-led government in the Centre survives and the present political ‘set up’ keeps going until the mandated elections take place next year.
The other possible explanation is the ‘Imran Khan factor’. The PPP as well as the PML-N realise that they need to work together to prevent the PTI from making inroads into their conventional vote banks. Essentially, the PPP and the PML-N have evolved as the two major political parties that would, as they did in the 1990s, alternate in power, but they have no desire to let any upstart party upset that arrangement.
That of course leads to the sort of possibility that ‘conspiracy theorists’ like me thrive on. President Zardari and Mian Nawaz Sharif are in cahoots. They decided four years ago that after the PPP term in office ends, the PML-N will get a chance to run the country and Mian Sahib will once again become prime minister. This might seem a bit farfetched, but the way the PPP government is behaving at this time gives credence to this idea.
Adding ministers to the federal government that are entirely unnecessary, and doing nothing except paying lip service to the most agonising problem facing ordinary people, that of load shedding, suggests that the PPP government has accepted the fact that it will not form the next government at the Centre. So, there is no point for this government to try and fix things. What the PPP government is doing by bringing in more ministers is rewarding its stalwarts and giving them a chance to make some money while that is still possible, unless of course the Chief Justice of Pakistan makes that even more difficult.
The question then arises whether the PTI really offers a clear ideological alternative to the PML-N or the PPP? The answer is that there are no clear-cut ideological differences between any of them. Almost every politician supports Islam, supports an ‘independent’ foreign policy, wants economic improvement, opposes corruption and wants an end to ethnic and sectarian violence. What that then suggests is that the next election will as always be between the ‘notables’ from different parties in their electoral districts. Political ideology will not be a factor since the major political parties have no real ideological differences. The far right (overtly religious parties) and the far left do not count anyway as far as winning elections is concerned.
The writer has practised and taught medicine in the US and in Pakistan. He can be reached at [email protected]