Statistics can be a legal way of lying. A statement backed by figures, no matter how fictitious, has more weight than sweeping phraseology. This seems to be the thought process of those working with government on the numbers business. With so much fake work going on in every sphere of politics, expecting the finance department to be any different is really asking for the moon. As the budget season approaches, the task of figure fudging is at its peak. Starting with the macros to the micros, each figure is going to be spun and spanked into submission. The big number is the GDP growth rate and the fight to make it bigger than it actually is. The government wants it to be ‘four percent’ but the preliminary work shows that it is around 3.2 percent That does not please Hafeez Sheikh since it does not please the man he wishes to please, i.e. the president. So what do you do? You rework and you recalculate and you change the base years to compare them with a pre-2000 base year rather than post that year, and you manage to get a figure that shows a healthy growth rate that the minister can boast about in his budget speech.
But for all those who are part of the economy, i.e. either in jobs or doing business, and for all those who are suffering citizens looking for basic facilities and a survival point, such figures will just add frustration and a wish for retaliation. What they are experiencing is perhaps the worst economic crunch that the country has ever witnessed and what they are living through is the most strained daily existence of a life without electricity, gas and for the majority, a decent meal in exorbitantly spiralling inflation. Even the most sedate, blind and illiterate will not buy the chant of an Economic Survey talking about better growth in the economy this year.
The balance of payments of Pakistan cut a sorry figure. Current account deficits loom large. It is common knowledge that export targets are going to be missed. That is but natural. If the export of textiles is facing a crisis and textiles form a major portion of our economy, how is it possible to paint a rosy picture of growth? From fruit exports to carpet exports, all figures show a deficit. Foreign direct investment has registered a 65 percent decline. Local investment is shuddering due to the multiple shocks of the energy crisis, inflation, insecurity, etc. The fact that almost 50 percent of textile units have or are considering relocating their manufacturing to other countries, especially Bangladesh, is an indicator of a lack of confidence in the future of this country. This is going to cause multiple problems. In an economy where unemployment and inflation together are marginalising streams of people to live below survival point, crime and lawlessness are inevitable, thus reinforcing the vicious circle of a crumbling economy and disintegrating security. However, the government is very proud to show that the official foreign exchange reserves are still rising to over $ 16 billion dollars. Again, figures do not reflect the source of their accrual. Is it hard earned income or aid and debt accumulated is the question that really needs to be asked to determine whether this is another example of artificial economic hormone therapy.
The Punjab government, with its attitude of being holier than the Centre, is also now doing a pre-budget meena bazaar of development projects. In a hurry to slow its declining popularity and having run out of slogans against the Centre, they are now throwing money after any scheme coming their way. First, there was the laptop-showering spree that bought them more disrepute than goodwill. Presently, from metro buses to yellow cabs to housing schemes, each single day millions are spent on half-page advertisements in major newspapers with the two Sharif brothers occupying more of the ad space than the scheme that is being announced. The obsession with roads and underpasses is two-fold. One, they are visible and tangible proof of some work in action and more importantly, they present massive opportunities of kickbacks and corruption. The problem with this hurried and poorly thought out last minute splashing of money on all fronts is that it acts like a blazing exterior for the shortest of time spans and the minute somebody pokes a finger in them, the cracks start to appear, exposing the hollowness of projects made without plans and vision. With the 18th amendment in place, the provinces have to justify their own performance. However, the new game between the provinces is not to prove their own worth but to prove the other party’s worthlessness. The competition between the federal and provincial chiefs is about who has indulged in more corrupt actions. While they are busy digging up dirt on each other and threatening action, the public becomes more aghast on where their buck snatching will stop. The whole focus should be on who makes lives better for the public but here the game is on who has made lives worse. This concept of being the lesser evil is incomprehensible and unacceptable.
With such a ruinous climate, how can the so-called economic managers survive? The answer lies in the base figure fudging. Make the base figure so miserably low and hopeless that even non-performance looks comparable. Thus by constantly talking of a 30 percent rise in the crime rate in other provinces for the last four years, a rise of 25 percent in Punjab is almost an achievement. Similarly, with deficits looming in trillions at the centre, the losses of billions at the province are supposed to be insignificant. This situation has created a cycle of hopelessness in the public and they spurn any statement by any party present either in the government or outside the government who talks about reform and a better Pakistan. This unfortunately is the legacy of years of leaders coming into power, promising the sky and delivering dust, and that also at a huge cost. As Napoleon once said, a leader is a dealer in hope. Unfortunately, in our country a leader is a dealer in under the table deals. For this country to change, the biggest task is to restore the faith of the people of this country in this country, in this economy and in the dignity of a leader being a man of his word.
The writer is an analyst, consultant and information Secretary of PTI Punjab and can be reached at [email protected]