Can Mian Nawaz Sharif bring about a change in our economic policy to make a complete departure from the policies of trickledown effect that have failed miserably, to bold policy initiatives that would provide relief to the impoverished masses? It can be done with the help of economists of stature in other Asian and Latin American countries. Set up a panel of Chinese, Malaysian, Singapore and Brazilian experts along with ours and seek their assistance. This should be done to formulate medium and long-term plans for setting the course of the economy. It will not be an easy task, starting from changing our rusticated thinking on economic policymaking to evolving a new policy suited to our needs and then implementing it with sincerity and full commitment.
In the short term, immediate steps need to be taken to stop the bleeding and stabilise the economy. Firstly, government expenditure needs reduction in order to avoid printing notes. The bureaucracy can be trimmed easily by about 10 percent; a federal cabinet of less than 20 would help as also a small Punjab cabinet. Discontinue development funds to parliamentarians as they have proved to be wasteful as well as a source of corruption. Privatise the Pakistan Steel Mills and PIA and such other burdens. Secondly, find a workable and meaningful solution to impose an agriculture tax. This is important in order to bring equality of taxation and also that other sectors no longer use it to justify their avoidance of taxes; besides it will bring much needed revenue. Thirdly, as businessmen are part of the PML-N’s vote bank, the party must put pressure on them to pay taxes and if they do not comply measures such as turnover taxes, all payments by crossed cheques, etc, could also be introduced. Thirdly, an immediate short and medium plan for alleviating energy shortages within two to three years where a visible difference is noticeable in the first 18 months. Fourthly, to deal with the IMF negotiations, which are imminent, an experienced and competent team of technocrats, not chosen on their loyalties, should accompany the new finance minister.
The miserable state of education and the consequential level of illiteracy is appalling at all levels. Those who have been to schools and colleges, more than half of them cannot be considered educated and fit for the job market. A major part of our economic failure can be attributed to across the board illiteracy and very poor quality, whereas our future economic development is completely linked to our progress in the sphere of education. The present structure, starting from the ministry of education, HEC and the various other tiers, all of them need to be totally revamped as they are responsible for the utter mess. A commission needs to be made immediately consisting of some eminent names in private sector educational establishments, the very few exceptions that exist in the public sector, and well known Asian educationists. Full powers be given to formulate a policy plan spread over the next five, 10 and 15 years, with recommendations including financial needs. A government commitment to meet the cost. They should also be asked to implement it. Until this is done there is no need to increase the education budget as there is no point putting good money into a hopeless system.
The new prime minister has to deal with the Taliban war in the tribal areas where our troops are bogged down since almost 10 years against the terrorism of the TTP, which has killed around 50,000 soldiers and civilians. The war with the Taliban was not our war. General Pervez Musharraf made it ours, and we have to find a solution by taking foreign policy initiatives as part of the 2014 US withdrawal from Afghanistan and extricate ourselves quickly. Our foreign policy initiatives will also have to deal with the whole gamut of questions raised by the American withdrawal; mistakes made at the time of the Soviet withdrawal must not be repeated. The ‘strategic depth’ theory was flawed and still remains so as it cannot be supported without resources. Therefore, our goals should be realistic, not adventurous.
Mian Nawaz Shareef’s strategy to engage the Indian PM so early augurs well for the subcontinent. A settlement with India during his term would bring many benefits to the country.
Mr Sharif’s task is onerous, the country is teetering, dangers lurk everywhere and very few are easy to solve. This requires sincerity, honesty, commitment, freedom from bias and prejudice, building consensus without sacrificing principles, tapping the country’s best talent regardless of affiliation, calling for outside help where local expertise is missing, meticulous planning and of course hard work. Some of these qualities were missing in his previous terms as PM, but then a lot of water has flowed since and the changed circumstances call for changes in him. We wish him luck.
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The writer is a businessman and a former chairman of the National Textile Foundation. He can be reached at [email protected]