As the NATO/US withdrawal date approaches, the future stability of Afghanistan and the region including the neighboring countries is being debated. The problem of Afghanistan is complex and a number of factors, interests and conflicts are further complicating it: the US establishment, the non-Pashtun Afghan establishment sceptical of the Pakistani establishment, the US versus Iran, the special 3,000 strong force secretly operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan for dubious missions, the Russian apprehensions vis-à-vis an ever-expanding US role in the region, the smugglers and drug cartels and India versus Pakistan. Of late, a number of western analysts have argued that the only obstacle to peace in Afghanistan is the India-Pakistan rivalry.
Dr Amit Ranjan in “Afghanistan quagmire: is there a way out?” (Daily Times, July 5, 2013) discussing this wrote: “Two countries that have been pro-active in Afghanistan are India and Pakistan. Since 1947 they have been engaged against each ‘other’ in Afghanistan. At present too their rival ‘strategic’ interests have pitched them against the ‘other’…Is there any solution to the forthcoming predicament? Yes, there is. The ‘only’ ‘effective’ solution to deal with the post-2014 mess is cooperation between India and Pakistan over Afghanistan.” Agreed! But this is where the agreement ends. More on this, later.
Since 9/11, India has emerged as a major economic partner of Afghanistan. According to reports, India is the fifth largest donor to Afghanistan and has provided $ 1.3-2 billion worth of aid to Afghanistan. In 2011, Kabul and New Delhi signed an Agreement on Strategic Partnership (ASP). India is constructing the new parliament building of Afghanistan and is also reported to have provided planes for Afghan national airline, Ariana Afghan Airlines. It is also smartly using soft power to improve its image in Afghanistan by building roads, schools and hospitals. For instance, it has established the Indira Gandhi Paediatric Hospital in Kabul, the largest of its kind in Afghanistan. A number of Indian companies are heavily investing in Afghanistan in various sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and mining. According to a RAND study, “By constructing a 220-kilometre road between the Afghan cities of Zaranj and Delaram in 2008–2009, for example, the Indian Border Roads Organisation (BRO) connected the main Herat-Kandahar highway with existing routes leading to the Iranian port of Chahbahar. Similarly, to facilitate Indian companies’ access to Afghanistan’s estimated $1 trillion in minerals and raw materials, Delhi is planning to build a rail link from Hajigak, a mineral-rich area in Bamyan province, through Zaranj, and onward to Chahbahar. India is also working with Iran to build a 600-km road from Chahbahar to the Iranian city of Zahedan, near the south-western corner of Afghanistan that would follow a similar route to the rail line.”
Historically, Islamabad viewed Afghanistan’s behaviour and its close ties with India and its support for anti-Pakistan elements as a threat to its national security; it would like to see this trend end. Moreover, Kabul’s continuous and persistent refusal to recognise the Durand Line as an international border further complicates this picture. Islamabad views the sudden rise of separatist activities in Balochistan and increased Indian involvement in Afghanistan and especially in bordering provinces of Afghanistan as interlinked.
Islamabad is keen to have a stable and secure Afghanistan due to its desire to establish economic linkages with the Central Asian states. Central Asian energy resources can not only provide Pakistan with an opportunity to meet its ever-increasing energy requirements but can transform Pakistan into an energy hub or corridor via the Gawadar port. Islamabad is keen to see projects like TAPI to fruition as according to Islamabad such projects are beneficial to all parties. However, it also clearly understands that for Islamabad’s Central Asian dream to materialise, a stable and viable Afghanistan holds the key.
Both India and Pakistan have an interest in having strong relations with Kabul. New Delhi’s interests are mostly economic, although check mating Islamabad in the course as an interest cannot be ignored. Islamabad, that shares historical, religious and linguistic relations with Afghanistan, wants to have cordial relations with, using President Karzai’s words, its twin brother Afghanistan. A peaceful and stable Afghanistan means a peaceful and stable Pakistan.
India is a rising global player but it cannot finally arrive unless it has a more friendly South Asia, especially Pakistan. Pakistan cannot get out of its problems unless an understanding is reached at least on some aspects of its relations with India. And till the time this happens, South Asia as a whole will continue to suffer. So, is India and Pakistan competition in post-2014 Afghanistan inevitable? Not necessarily, especially if both follow the adverse partnership model (formulated by Professor Carol Bell). Afghanistan can, in fact, be the first step towards a successful peace process and a more peaceful South Asia. According to this model, in a situation where costs outweigh profits of any confrontation, the actors involved should adopt an adverse partnership. By “adverse partnership”, Professor Bell does not “mean to imply anything particularly cordial, trusting, or friendly: only a consciousness, between the dominant powers, that they have solid common interests as well as sharp differences.” Adopting this model in their policies on Afghanistan would serve all countries positively. Trilateral cooperation between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India would benefit these countries immensely. As a starter, all countries can cooperate in energy, water and other economic or in other words non-security sectors. TAPI can benefit the whole region and this is one such potential project. There are a number of others that can be identified and pursued. Afghanistan might have been a corridor throughout its history but with a visionary South Asian leadership, this time, instead of invaders, peace and prosperity can come from Afghanistan benefiting the people of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. In a classic game of Buzkhashi, after the game, all players sit together and have a feast. This is what Kabul, Islamabad and New Delhi should now eye: a feast of peace and prosperity. Nothing better but Mao’s wisdom can suffice here: a thousand miles journey begins with a single step. The leadership of the proverbial triple twins should also remember what an elderly statesman of South Asia once said: a country cannot change its neighbour.
The writer is an associate editor of Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs and is based at the Center for Muslim States and Societies, University of Western Australia. He is a former Benjamin Meaker Visiting Professor, University of Bristol and visiting scholar at the India-South Asia Project, Foreign Policy Program, Brookings Institution, USA. He recently guest edited a special issue of Journal of South Asian Development (sage) on Afghanistan and the Region: Post 2014 and lectured at RUSI, WA on Afghanistan: Post 2014