Recently, a power sharing agreement was signed between Afghan election candidates after a two-month audit of the election results. According to the power sharing formula, Mr Malik Ashraf Ghani will be the next president while Mr Abdullah Abdullah has been given powers to nominate the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) with powers equal to the prime minister but it is not clear whether he will take this post himself or nominate someone else for the job. The CEO will chair the council of ministers that will make decisions with the agreement of the president.
The signing of this unity deal has ended the five-month long political standoff between the front runners, which had created a political crisis. Both sides have agreed to initiate the electoral reforms process by introducing electronic identity cards. Even before the elections, the Afghan government had introduced two parliamentary bills that were approved and ratified by the National Assembly and Afghan president. These laws were passed to ensure fair elections, to prevent presidential control over the independent election commission and to prevent the interference of other governmental agencies in the electoral process. Given the election controversies of the 2009-2010 elections, the introduction of new legislation was deemed necessary to improve the election monitoring system.
Notwithstanding electoral reforms and legislation, the results of the Afghanistan runoff presidential elections created a political impasse. Given the ethnic polarisation of Afghan society and ethnic rivalries, there were fears that runoff elections might spur a new wave of violence and instability while further highlighting the ethnic cleavages within Afghan society. Another significant aspect of the peaceful political transition relates to future good governance in Afghanistan as the international community will only be able to honour its pledges of supporting Afghanistan financially, diplomatically and militarily post-2014 if Afghanistan has quality governance.
This unity government will not just introduce a balance of power in the Afghan political system, it will pave the way for the signing of the much awaited Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that will govern the presence of US troops in Afghanistan to train the Afghan security forces in the post-2014 era. In the unity government agreement, many issues still remain unresolved. Though the independent election commission declared Ashraf Ghani the winner of the poll and announced the end of the election process, under the Afghan constitution, the results of the elections have to be announced before the president is sworn in and a national unity government is formed. There are fears that this announcement regarding the winning margin of candidates might annoy Mr Abdullah’s supporters and result in clashes.
The new administration has to deal with many existing and emerging challenges, the most important being the challenge of insurgency as Taliban representatives rejected the elections and they might reject the legitimacy of the new government. Apart from this, in the past, Mr Ghani and Mr Abdullah held divergent views about the reconciliation process with insurgents; to proceed on this account would be a daunting task. It is noteworthy that the initiation of the intra-Afghan reconciliation process is important for the future stability of Afghanistan. It would help to accommodate the interests of stakeholders and create a conducive environment for successful economic and security transitions without which the transition process will remain incomplete.
Mr Ghani has already set his priorities regarding security and economic reforms in the country. Apart from electoral reforms, Afghanistan needs to develop a political culture that will enhance transparency and accountability while paving the way for other successful transitions. The evolving situation in Afghanistan will not just define the future contours of Afghanistan, it will impact regional states as well. Regional states are concerned about the security and stability of Afghanistan. These states have always been apprehensive of even merely thinking about civil war in Afghanistan because they believe it will not remain confined to Afghanistan but will have spillover effects on the whole region. Regional stability depends on Afghanistan’s stability. Given the higher stakes involved in the stability of Afghanistan, neighbouring states can help in capacity building in Afghanistan.
One hopes that, 13 years after the 9/11 attacks, Afghanistan will undergo a successful transition process and the decade long instability in Afghanistan will come to an end.
The writer works at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) and can be reached at [email protected]