Indian Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi has really kick-started India’s expansionist policy based on economic expansion. His extra focus on the country’s foreign policy, evident from his incessant trips to various countries, from Japan and China to the US, besides attending international forums to project India as a rising economic power in South Asia, have surprised the world to a large extent. No one expected a nationalist leader to focus more on the economy and less on conflict-based politics. It is important to recall that Modi is known for the Gujarat episode based on religious nationalism, which led to the killings of many Indian Muslims.
India’s foreign policy is based on two factors: expanding India’s economic interests and ensuring security within the region, particularly with regard to its immediate neighbours, including Pakistan. The economic priority of India was highlighted by Modi’s visits to the outside world, starting from Japan in early September as the first destination. Modi, who is known for promoting Hindi as a language while meeting with world leaders, stated in Japan, “Mere blood mein money hai” (money is in my blood). This speaks much about Modi’s desperation to exploit every economic space in the world. It is often said that the personal linkages of world leaders also affect their country’s policies. This can be seen from the warmth in the relationship of Modi and Shinzo Abe, the PM of Japan, resulting in Japanese assurance of cooperation on the Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train link and on upgrading the ship-breaking yard at Alang, besides the promotion of India’s regional interests in Asia. Japan now looks ready to be a strong economic partner for India, given the economic recession it is now facing.
Having such a holistic view of foreign policy, Modi cannot ignore the rising spectre of China. Based on his concepts of economic alignment in the age of post-globalisation, Modi’s rapprochement with China is seen as more promising and more complicated. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to India (Modi’s state of Gujarat) has given the signal that both leaders give priority to the economy and not hostility. One cannot ignore the media’s reports that China will commit $ 100 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) over the next five years in India, 200 percent more than Japan.
But is everything really going that well? The Chinese economic involvement in India depends on the attitude of the Indian states. To make Modi’s ‘Make in India’ policy a success, Indian states have to tone down the rhetoric of Swadeshi (Indian nationalism). In this regard, Modi said, “$100 billion investments from Japan, China and the US have applied for visa. Now it is the turn of the states to capitalise on the opportunity.”
Another difficulty in attracting Chinese FDI is the complicated relationship both India and China have, particularly after Modi’s victory in May and his assertion to challenge Chinese expansionism. The Tibetan PM-in-exile, Lobsang Sangay, was invited to his swearing-in and he visited Bhutan, Japan, Nepal and Vietnam, four countries likely to be affected by China’s expansionism. Even on the sidelines of the BRICS summit at Fortaleza in July, Modi urged an amicable solution to the India-China border dispute. China responded by launching border incursions even during the time Xi visited India.
Indian politics cannot ignore such Chinese moves, even if Modi and Xi want to. Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh has declared: “Peace cannot come at the cost of honour.”
India is also planning to build a road along the McMahon Line, which is a disputed border. It is interesting to quote Singh here: “Today, no one can give warnings to India. We are a very powerful country.” India’s plans to install cameras along the border with China and to open 54 new border posts was seen by China as a complication in the India-China calculus. China responded: “not to do things that may complicate the situation”. If such complications in their relations continue, it may not attract real Chinese FDI into India.
Even India’s ties with Pakistan are not going according to Modi’s plans for economic expansionism. Although Modi had invited the Pakistani premier to his swearing-in ceremony, and also exchanged words of sympathy for the recent floods in Kashmir, things were disturbed soon after India cancelled foreign secretary level talks with Pakistan. Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif even sent mangoes as a gift to Modi, which could be termed as mango diplomacy, to show his intentions of establishing peace. However, the ongoing violations of the ceasefire on the Line of Control (LOC) have pushed relations back to square one.
How far such disturbed ties between Pakistan and India will make this year’s South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit a success is questionable. Without reducing the trust deficit and conflicts between both South Asian nuclear powers, SAARC can never be a meaningful body to promote economic integration, one of the major priorities of Modi’s foreign policy. Without Pakistan, India cannot shape a workable policy for a friendly neighbourhood and region, and, without it, it will be difficult for India to translate its objectives of economic expansionism into a reality.
India’s policy of building a strategic relationship with Afghanistan is also facing complications. In Fortaleza, Modi had declared, “India will continue to assist Afghanistan in building its capacity in governance, security and economic development.” However, now, the new administration in Afghanistan is showing a tilt towards China, a bigger economic power than India, to help rebuild Afghanistan. In recent weeks, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visited Pakistan and vowed to reset Pak-Afghan ties and direct them towards a strategic relationship. If India is expecting to build ties with Sri Lanka, China has already exploited the opportunity and gained influence there. Modi is surely facing a foreign policy dilemma.
The writer is a political scientist based in Islamabad. He tweets @hassanshahjehan