The terror attack on the children’s school in Peshawar has apparently jolted society, politics and the state of Pakistan to the extent that yesterday’s political enemies (Sharifs versus Imran Khan) were seen sitting together with the desire to conclude a plan of action within a week to deal with terrorism effectively. The chairman of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), Imran Khan, has announced an end to the ongoing sit-in in Islamabad along with the cancellation of the plan to shut down the entire country. These decisions have raised eyebrows from within and outside the PTI. For example, PTI women were seen weeping when their captain asked them to leave for home and that instead of enjoying the music at the dharna (sit-in) they should observe vigils in memory of the 132 plus innocent children who made their way to paradise. Moreover, there are reports of disagreements in the higher levels of Khan’s party. The dissenting voices might have argued that once the PTI is home, it will be very challenging to re-mobilise its cadre and gather a reasonable following for an effective show of protest politics. As a student of political science, this has urged me to ask the following questions: why did the PTI feel the need to end its ongoing show of a sit-in in Islamabad? Was the party’s top leadership not confident about its strategy and resources to launch a countywide protest in terms of sealing entry and exit points in Karachi, Islamabad, Peshawar and Lahore? Has the party changed its mind with respect to its perennial position on rigging? Can one argue that the PTI has attained honourable face saving in the wake of the school attack? Moreover, can we expect the party to re-launch a similar programme of action by getting its fans back in Islamabad and demanding an objective investigation into the allegedly rigged elections?
In order to address the above-mentioned, let us understand the political context of such decision making by Imran Khan and his close associates such as Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Jahangir Tareen. Before the occurrence of the terror attack on the children’s school in Peshawar, the PTI leadership was all set to pressure the Sharif-led N-League government to seriously announce a meaningful probe into the alleged rigging. Without any political prejudice, the PTI has, in my view, emerged as a party that can mobilise urban Pakistan. This precisely was the reason behind its successful and peaceful protest in Faisalabad and Lahore. Moreover, the party was able to continue with its sit-in spree in Islamabad simultaneously. In addition, Mr Khan seemed adamant in going ahead in observing a countrywide (urban) protest as per his Plan C. However, before Plan C could be operationalised and Plan D exposed, the Pakistani nation witnessed another massive terror attack. The timing of this attack almost coincided with the PTI’s plan of action. Hence, within the margin of one day, if the PTI had gone ahead as planned, almost everybody would have viewed it as being concerned more with its political self-interest than the larger interest of the country. Cynics would even have dubbed it anti-military and anti-children (anti-humanity) had Imran Khan and his party continued with their protest politics. Moreover, as per our collective cultural and religious tradition, politicians, along with the military and media, thought it prudent to express condolences and show solidarity with the families of the departed souls. Hence, a combination of cultural and religious reasons urged Imran Khan and, interestingly, Nawaz Sharif to cancel their respective schedules and sit side by side to apparently give a unanimous impression of mutual understating of the problem of terrorism.
Nonetheless, an element of rationality is also traceable in the PTI’s approach to ending the sit-in. To begin with, the PTI was relatively successful in demonstrating a reasonable following within urban Pakistan last week. However, the party could not transform its street passion into effective and sustained psychological and political pressure to destabilise the federal and Punjab governments. If the past is any guide, the PTI, in my view, would have been able to successfully conclude a closure of the main entry and exit points of urban Pakistan since sealing major roads requires a handful of passionate fans. But to bring the government to its knees would have proved a challenging task since this requires a systemic and sustained protest in the country’s length and breadth that includes rural and non-Punjab areas too. Thus, the PTI viewed it as more rational to postpone, yes postpone, its protest project while it struggles with organisational and human, if not financial issues, especially in the non-urban areas. The postponement is expected to provide the PTI much needed time and energy to rethink and possibly revise its political strategy with respect to the Sharifs and the like.
Put differently, capitalising on the terror attack that happened in Khan’s province, Imran has provided his party and fans with an honourable face saving along with ample time to plan for the future. The timing of their next move will solely be decided by the PTI. Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif and his associates have an opportunity to engage Imran Khan and company in result-oriented negotiations to settle the rigging issue. If the former were not forthcoming, the latter would be upcoming. In order to avoid such a scenario, the onus of responsibility for dialogue is more on the government now, since it is in the position of authority. However, the latter should also realise the political, socio-economic and security plight of Pakistan. This country can ill-afford prolonged protest and any destabilising tactics. There are more benefits in cooperation than in confrontation. Therefore, the two sides are urged, on a moral and liberal note, to mend ways and move in the direction of peaceful resolution of the present conflict. However, old habits die hard. So Pakistanis and the world are likely to witness the ‘Kaptaan’ announcing a new phase of protest politics once the current terror wave subsides. If this happens, the terror-stricken country will bleed more. More on this at that time.
The writer is a DAAD fellow and is the author of Military Agency, Politics and the State in Pakistan. He works as an assistant professor at Iqra University, Islamabad and tweets @ ejazbhatty