The Arab Spring, perceived in different paradigms by most analysts, is getting more and more momentous and complex. Most analysts take the conflicts to be social crises leading to political chaos in the entire region but its political repercussions are not limited to political instability if the situation is analysed from a macro perspective. The expanding control of Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and rebels in Syria, along with the huge influx of refugees from various Arab states, are providing these insurgents with regular reinforcements.
In the current globalised world where social media is a strong force, it is also being used by the insurgent groups to communicate with their supporters as well as to respond to their critics; the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other insurgents in Pakistan have their representation on Facebook and other social networking sites. One of the major reasons behind YouTube’s ban is that it has been used by militant groups to present their ideology and doctrine, which is becoming exceedingly damaging for the Pakistan army’s image.
There is plenty of evidence that an enormous number of people from Pakistan have been joining militants in Syria and Iraq. Pakistan is one of the most polarised societies on the planet, with a dark history in terms of sectarian clashes between Shias and Sunnis. The strong support base of violent sectarian groups in the urban areas of Pakistan including Karachi, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad and Multan is going to be a major challenge for the state as they are adept enough to provide extremist groups with logistics and safe havens in the urban areas, which could soon become the new battleground for sectarian clashes, leading to a decentralised civil war in Pakistan as can be seen happening in Syria and Iraq. On the other hand, ethnic unrest in the economic hub of Karachi, strategically vital Balochistan, Sindh and southern Punjab reflects the scenario of post-1990s Yugoslavia.
Moreover, along with religious radicalisation, the augmenting secular radicalisation in Pakistan is now the most knotty and tangled challenge that needs to be dealt with. In Pakistan, those who have been opposing military operations in the tribal areas are being called pro-extremist groups and those supporting military operations are said to be liberals. This contradiction gets even more mystifying when the secular radicalist segment in our society opposes military operations in Balochistan and emphasises the political settlement there but when it is about the US’s war on terror they simply propose no option other than the military solution. Anti-war leaders like Imran Khan are being delineated and characterised as pro-Taliban and extremist while the pro-war segment of society is termed as liberals. The state of Pakistan is full of paradoxes with respect to social and political aspects where the followers of the philosophical theory of pacifism are radicals and the ones leaning towards the just war theory are enlightened moderates.
Therefore, keeping in mind the situation of the Middle East and strong patronage of IS within miscellaneous groups in Pakistan, we should not drag ourselves towards a civil war. Nonetheless, more than half a million internally displaced persons (IDPs) due to Operation Zarb-e-Azb could result in a mammoth and gigantic challenge. Furthermore, history is witness that refugee camps have always served as reinforcement and recruitment centres for insurgents. My admonition to Imran would be to return to his policy of political solution of the war on terror instead of endorsing the military solution. After the Peshawar incident, the reaction of political and civil society activists, especially of secularly inclined folk, has impelled him to go on the back foot as far as his policy of dialogue and negotiations is concerned. The Peshawar incident, on the contrary, ratifies that military operations are counterproductive. Imran needs to think twice about his endorsement of Operation Zarb-e-Azb and the establishment of military courts, which are detrimental to the sovereignty of Pakistan. He should follow in the footsteps of the greatest sports athlete of all times, Mohammad Ali, who preferred to go behind bars instead of participating in the unjust Vietnam War. Imran should also prefer negotiations even if he has to face massive political privation in this regard.
The writer is a freelance columnist