When the international order is making space for China and shifting the balance towards multi-polarity, ties between the US and China will shape the future global order: global peace, prosperity and governance. From Russia’s relationship with the west, particularly over the Ukrainian crisis, to the disturbing situation in the Middle East, agreements or disagreements between both the states will have implications for the rules that govern the world.
At present, it seems that powerful forces in both the US and China are on a collision course. In China, the current leadership of Xi Jinping is working on a proactive foreign policy and using its economic leverage to attract the world to its side. The formation of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), for example, is not only a reaction to the US policy of downgrading China in the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and Asian Development Bank (ADB), but also the Chinese policy of controlling the developmental narrative, particularly in Asia. By developmental narrative is meant that China is expanding its clout in the region by financing the infrastructural and developmental needs of developing nations on its own terms and conditions without any influence of the US. Naturally, this will bring Asian countries closer to China than the US. In the present world order, the economy has substituted ideology and countries will go where they find funding.
Under Xi’s assertive leadership, China is no longer isolating itself by following Deng Xiaoping’s injunction that the country should “hide its strength, bide its time and never take the lead” in international affairs. By following Deng’s theory of dealing with the outside world, China has successfully managed to develop its economy, which has spurred it onto the world’s stage. Now, when China is a near-competitor of the US, it can no longer afford to adopt the policy of isolationism. This is the reason why China seems to have jumped onto the world stage. It has flexed its muscles and is pursuing its territorial claims in the South China Sea. Also, it is resisting the continuation of US dominance in the region through its economy and military.
There is a growing perception among the Chinese that the US policy towards Asia is intended to isolate and undermine China. On the US’s ‘re-balancing strategy’, China believes that the US focus towards Asia is only meant to contain China. Under the strategy, the US seems to be achieving two objectives: contain China economically and militarise Japan. On the economic side, the US is working on the Trans-Pacific Partnership and, for the second objective, the US is encouraging Japan to come out of its pacifist constitution and build its military to counter the growing threats of today. Whatever may be the US’s policy, the famous discourse is that the US is intent to remain the only dominant power, especially in Asia.
Such intentions of the US can be found in a report for the Council of Foreign Relations by Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis, arguing that the US’s grand objective must be “preserving US primacy in the global system” and, for that, the report suggests aggressive economic, political and military measures to “balance” China. Very cleverly, the word “containment” is replaced by the world “balance” but, in essence, both connote the same meaning: countering China’s rise to sustain the US’s dominance. If such a US strategy continues, there is every reason to believe that a Sino-US conflict is bound to arise in the near future.
To stop that from happening, there is the need to have a new strategy, called “constructive realism” by Kevin Rudd, former Australian prime minister and now the head of the Asian Society Policy Institute. In a new report for the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Centre for Science and International Affairs, Rudd outlines the blueprint for future US-China cooperation. According to Rudd, issues such as Taiwan, the South and East China Seas and China’s military modernisation are areas that are hard to deal with. Any solution to such issues requires careful management or it risks open confrontation between the US and China. But there are other areas of cooperation and collaboration between both countries. For any progress and collaboration to take place, the US needs to recognise China as an equal partner and appreciate its importance in the present world order. It needs to be clear on the fact that China has emerged as a rising power, sometimes substituting the US’s influence and, at other times, complementing it. There are many difficult issues challenging global peace and order that require a constructive approach by the US and China. On issues such as terrorism, cyber security and nuclear proliferation, there is great room for both the countries to engage bilaterally, regionally and globally to systematically sustain the world order.
Bilaterally, both the US and China can work for a joint intelligence task force for countering the menace of international terrorism. On the issues of nuclear proliferation, the US can involve China in making new rules to counter the proliferation of nuclear technology. For that matter, a good start would be mutual ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. On a regional level, both countries — the US and China — could collaborate on the strategies to solve North Korea’s nuclear issue. Also, the joint strategies could work on harmonising trade agreements. If the Sino-US collaboration continues constructively, it can tackle the lingering sore of Japan’s war history.
At the global level, both the US and China have a common interest in combating climate change. Thus, this is one of the important areas for both countries to cooperate and bring forward a joint agenda to tackle the issue of global warming. More importantly, the US needs to work together with China to internationalise the renminbi, giving China a greater role in the IMF and World Bank. The over-reaction by the US over the formation of the AIIB will not solve the problem unless systematic structural changes are introduced in the Bretton Woods institutions. Also, there is a need to reform other key institutions within the UN system to bring them in line with the changing post-World War II ground realities. In the present world order, China’s rise will continue and it has to be accommodated by the US. This time, the containment strategy will not work.
The writer is a political scientist based in Islamabad. He tweets @hassanshahjehan