The economy and population growth

There is no denying that China recognises the geo-economic and geopolitical importance of a strategic relationship with Pakistan. Pakistan was a thriving economy in the 1950s and 1960s and could become one again. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) offers great hope in this context. Socio-political and economic internal and external realities of countries that guide the behaviours and attitudes of people and governments around the globe are important determinants of development, which make a difference.
The characteristics of population, its size and structure, social policy and social control, social inequalities (including global inequality), prejudice and discrimination and social institutions all add up to give the picture of a society: its politics, economy, aspirations, psychology, health, motivation and resistance to change. No study on the economy and population can ignore the relationship between people and their environment, especially in urban areas. The term urbanism is used to describe distinctive patterns of social behaviour evident among city residents.
During the 19th and early 20th centuries, rapid urbanisation occurred primarily in Europe and North America. However, since World War II, the populations of cities in developing countries have exploded. Of the many problems Pakistan faces, none seems to be more important than low agricultural production and high rate of population growth. No amount of success in other spheres will be able to compensate for lack of success in these. My comparative research study undertaken in Lahore indicated an inverse relationship of socio-economic status with birth rate, upholding the hypothesis ‘the higher the socio-economic status, the lower the birth rate’. Education, income and social and professional status are achievement motivational factors that necessitate the need and the urge to keep family size low, ultimately to provide opportunities for development, growth and upward mobility.
Investment in education is the ultimate solution to bringing about change and socio-economic growth and development. We should go about looking for better ways to bring change in the spirit of reforms that can improve the standard of living of our people. A healthy mind and healthy body are the basic instruments in creativity and strengthening Pakistan’s economy and polity. The roots of health promotion lie in the effort to improve the social and environmental determinants of global health and focus on recent economic and political history that refers to those determinants and change. Indicated is the need for market deregulation and smaller, smart governance for access to the needy. Selective removal of trade barriers, such as tariffs and subsidies, are supported.
Many claims about the benefits of globalisation are questioned. The need is for the trickle down of growth and sharing of the larger ‘cake’ of the economy. A seductive capitalistic approach that distorts the free market has not provided benefits or advantages to the common citizen. Rather, many forms of inequalities have been on the increase, pointing to the need for reform in politics, economy and people-oriented policies. Keynes emphasised the importance of economic redistributive mechanisms and government spending to support public good and to smooth the economic cycle. The intent was to restrain income and the behaviour of the wealthy in relative terms. An environment for technological advancement and positive impact for improved human life was expected and did actualise to a large extent.
Focus on unprecedented levels of global population growth, especially from the year 1960 onwards, underlined the need for population control when the growth rate of the population started to exceed the growth rate of the economy. The trend discouraged efforts to improve the quality of life and to remove inequalities at an international level, involving nations engaged in the important task of population control. Various international initiatives were put in place with a view to reducing inequalities worldwide and to raise the socio-economic status of the people because that was an effective way to put a check on the population explosion. Examining the relationship between population growth and economic development became necessary globally, especially in countries like Pakistan where resources at the disposal and command of the government were unable to match the flood of population. The need for health, housing, education, employment, recreation, transportation, communication and necessary infrastructure could not be satisfied in view of the limitation of resources.
Even effective national planning, policies and governance could not succeed because of the imbalance between economic growth and the population growth rate. The Malthusian logic of restraint could not work because that required an attitude, the development of which was linked with socio-economic status, suggesting that education, occupational status, income and social status are major change agents instrumental in keeping the population growth rate under control. Higher birth rates in poor families are an indicator of lack of genuine initiatives for providing them recreational opportunities. Lack of recreational opportunities to the poor was related to the baby boom. Those in the higher socio-economic status group are obliged to maintain and improve their status. They provide better living for their offspring and thus a constraint to plan and control their family size, which ensures better opportunities for their children.
We need to acknowledge the paramount role of population numbers but what is more important is the quality of population that can directly and indirectly contribute to the national socio-economic and psychological development process. Education, training and qualified manpower with a progressive outlook and positive attitudes can bring about desired change and development choices for now and the years to come. Working with people and projects requires deep understanding of the people, their problems, hopes, aspirations, fears, strengths and weaknesses. Besides methodology, knowledge, skills and positive attitudes, planners and administrators entrusted with projects and programmes need capacity and analytical ability to see things in the proper perspective and in relation to other related activities and programmes. It requires a strategic management approach.
Research studies indicate that what many less developed countries need most in order to narrow the rich-poor gap are internal changes involving important policies shift. Investment from abroad, while important, cannot replace the primary role in development: the contribution of the striving countries themselves. People in developing countries seek assistance but on the basis of mutual respect. They want to have friends, not masters.
Pakistan can resolve many of its current issues and crises through sincere, concerted efforts directed to ensure political and economic stability, and population planning and control to strengthen the resource base. For meaningful, productive effort, Pakistan needs an environment of internal and external peace and security made possible through joint civil and military deliberations and mutual support and cooperation. Terrorists must surrender. No room exists for ifs and buts when it comes to national security. The government must ensure proper checks on the media that violates established norms. Problem solving, crisis resolution and economic growth will become a reality through effective planning and policy implementation under people-oriented, cooperative and result-oriented approaches at various tiers of the planning and implementation structures.
Financially viable and relatively autonomous local government institutions having broad-based representation and effective, responsible roles ensuring effective planning, implementation and performance evaluation of development programmes can make significant contribution to local as well as national development needs. In this context we have failed to learn from our past experience. There has been no consistency and continuity of programmes. Experience of past programmes emphasised the need for breaking economic and bureaucratic barriers to free operations of local government. Also suggested was improvement in the attitude of government functionaries towards the people and their problems. Attitudes and behaviours are the prime movers of development and doing things right.
There exists a circular relationship between values and socio-economic status. The conclusion of this writer’s case study, based on quantitative analysis of data (from two comparative samples of population) suggests that family planning itself is a result of the forces behind the show that creates attitudes favourable for it. Similar studies in Pakistan and abroad support these findings. Further studies in urban and rural areas could help make broader generalisations applicable to the total universe. This conclusion is a guideline for planners and policy-makers. If funds allocated to family planning programmes were diverted as investment in education and measures to improve the occupational, social and income level of the people, the outcome would contribute to economic and social development.
An alternate to family planning programmes and a long-term solution to the problem of rapidly increasing population and its negative consequences were needed. The best choice was to invest in education for long-term multiple benefits, improving the level and status of the people for the sake of promoting positive values and constructive attitudes.

The writer is a former director, National Institute of Public Administration, a political analyst, public policy expert and an author. His book, Post 9/11 Pakistan, has been published in the US