Obama’s recent visit to India was crucial with regard to rapidly changing regional dynamics. China is a regional mastermind and is functioning accordingly to a diplomatic strategy designed to cope with its circumstances. Obama became the first US president to visit India twice due to the changing strategic conditions of Chinese politics in the region. Obama’s three-day visit to India was thought provoking: is it the right time to make bilateral negotiations and trade agreements, when the US needs Obama’s focus to be more on his office? India has been favoured by US policies and received multiple benefits, like civil nuclear technology, a defence agreement and trade expansions of $ 100 million to $ 500 million until 2025. The governments of both countries agreed to define a new era and assist India to stand on its own feet to face the regional challenges.
Modi’s government has been engaging in murky tactics. An old, one-sided agenda is reflected in every public address: “Pakistan and we are not equal. Pakistan is pursuing and engaging in war in India, which is not neglectable and should be answered on the borders.” The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in India is chiefly threatened by China’s continuing friendship with its beloved neighbour. China is the largest economy in Asia and has played a game changing role in destabilising hegemonic policies. It has established a new paradigm in the shape of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). An imminent threat for India is in the process of completion. Indian diplomacy is in full gear to pave the way for sabotaging this project.
The mighty military of Pakistan is striking back in full blow to overcome this crisis. Pakistan was an ally of the US at the start of the war on terror and at the end India was declared the most reliable partner in the war against terrorism by Obama. US-Pakistan relations always go through ups and downs, but due to the shifting of political as well as military power, there is anxiety in India and the US for modification of their foreign policies. Obama is currently busy with internal politics to strengthen his administration. The Republicans’ domination of the legislative houses has resulted in several policy drawbacks for Obama. The Pakistani political and military leadership is on the same page to make the environment favourable for the Chinese to make Gwadar and CPEC fully operational. In this regard, Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif’s visit to China, between Obama’s visits to India, shows that the Chinese are demanding cooperation and showing a desire to finish the CPEC project on an immediate, priority basis. The leadership in Pakistan has favoured China as their partner in trade, after viewing the global spectrum of politics. The Chinese political leadership have signed multibillion-dollar agreements recently, to continue their support of and cooperation with Pakistan at any cost.
CPEC is only one aspect of the bigger picture. Gwadar is not the only option for China. Beijing has built Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, Chittagong container port in Bangladesh, Lamu port in Kenya, Al-Ahdab in Iraq and Maria Atoll port in the Maldives, which is controlled by Chinese naval forces. Port Sudan and port Bagamoyo in Tanzania are also likely to be completed in 2017. This is an immense network of ports, which is called a “string of pearls”, functioning in the Indian Ocean from the Middle East to Shanghai. The purpose of building these ports is to boost Beijing’s trade and command over routes to create a monopoly on oceanic trade and to prevent China’s economic downfall in the future. The US presence in the Indian Ocean is declining gradually. The US is also withdrawing from Afghanistan and wishing to allocate power to India to establish its hegemony over South Asia. However, the geopolitics of South Asia has changed; the strategic situation is no longer favourable for the US to establish control over Asian countries, despite the cooperation of India.
Consequently, it is a concrete guesstimate that China is going to be designated as the next regulator of the Asian region and some parts of the Middle East by controlling resources, supplies and routes of the Indian Ocean. The Chinese advance in the region is the reason for the US and India’s policy formulators to worry. CPEC will provide the shortest trade route to China. India is working progressively to meet this challenge by building Chabahar port in Iran to compete with CPEC’s monopoly, but all in vain. Afghanistan, which is considerably dependent on Pakistan for trade, and China’s trade partners in the Central Asian Republics, Mongolia and Russia will favour China over India due to their investment in China’s vehicle industry. Mongolia, Russia and China have similar agendas for this trend of the globalisation of trade, which has forced them to open their economies up to the world for survival, to avoid isolation in this world and to become socialist and secular states.
The writer is a freelance columnist