Pakistan’s 12th general elections were held in May 2013 in which the PML-N gained a landslide victory. Subsequently, Nawaz Sharif formed the government, becoming prime minister (PM) of the country for a historic third term. This article is an attempt to examine the performance of his government. For this purpose, I will assess the government’s performance so far on the following different levels: a) institutional and political performance, b) socio-economic situation, c) managerial state of affairs and d) foreign policy performance.
To begin with, during the period under analysis, Pakistan’s state monopoly on the use of force was seriously contested by various terrorist organisations, armed sectarian outfits, nationalist insurgents, armed drug traffickers and money extortionists. Such organisations and outfits normally operate from the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA), which include South and North Waziristan. However, they have their sleeping cells in major urban centres such as Karachi, Lahore, Quetta, Rawalpindi and Peshawar. Resultantly, suicide bombings and target killings of, for example, Shia professionals have been a common phenomenon in major cities of the country. In other words, the writ of the state is constantly challenged not only in the tribal areas but also in other parts of Pakistan by groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In 2013 alone, 5,379 people, including 676 security forces personnel, lost their lives in terrorist attacks. In March 2014, the Nawaz Sharif government initiated peace talks with the Taliban but it failed to achieve the desired results. The Pakistan military later launched Operation Zarb-e-Azb (June 2014) in North Waziristan. Nevertheless, 5,496 people, including 132 school children, died in terror attacks in 2014. January 2015 witnessed the death of 300 people, including 55 Shias who were killed in a suicide attack on January 30. In 2015, so far, more than 3,000 people have lost their lives in terrorist attacks.
Similarly, socio-economic barriers have played havoc with Pakistan’s economy. The 2013 floods washed away standing crops on millions of acres and destroyed infrastructure. However, Pakistan’s GDP growth rate accelerated unexpectedly from 3.7 percent in financial year (FY) 2013 to 4.1 percent in FY 2014. Nonetheless, during 2013-2014, inflation increased sharply owing to a global downturn. In October the same year, the inflation rate rose to 9.08 percent from 7.39 percent in September. Consequently, prices rose on a monthly basis by 1.97 percent. From January to September 2014, the inflation rate remained on average 8.07 percent. However, in the last quarter of 2014 it started decreasing. In the last three months of 2014, inflation decreased to 5.82 percent, 3.96 percent and 4.3 percent respectively. In addition, in 2014, the Consumer Price Index decreased to 196.79 index points from 198.79 index points a month earlier. In 2014, the decrease in oil prices brought the inflation rate in Pakistan to an all-time low of 3.96 percent in November. Low demand and adequate supply kept the prices of food items in check. In other words, FY 2013 ended with some positive trajectories for Pakistan’s economy. Moreover, during the first quarter of FY 2014, the GDP grew by five percent. In the same period of FY 2013, it stood at 2.9 percent. Pakistan’s economy revived during the third quarter of FY 2014.
Some important breakthroughs that helped revive business confidence included a ‘friendly’ grant of $ 1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia, mobilisation of two billion dollars through the Eurobond issue, auction of 3G/4G licenses fetching $ 1.1 billion, and receiving $ 725 million from February to May 2014 under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves improved from $ 8,521.4 million in December 2013 to $ 13,922.4 million in December 2014. In December 2014, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan was estimated to be $ 24.33 billion as against $ 22.73 billion in December 2012. Pakistan received $ 7.79 billion remittances in the first half (July to December) of FY 2014, an increase of 9.6 percent from the previous year. It received $ 13.9 billion in FY 2013.
Last but not least, remittances increased to $ 1,289.46 million in FY 2013-2014 against $ 1,156.98 million in the same period during the previous year. However, agriculture growth declined to 2.1 percent in FY 2013-2014 as compared to 2.9 percent in FY 2012-2013. It remained at less than 11 percent, which is the lowest in the world. Pakistan has to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio in order to achieve its growth target. Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio has increased in the current fiscal year. It is projected to rise to 65.9 percent at the end of FY 2014, up from 63.1 percent of GDP in FY 2013. Moreover, though the GDP growth was slightly better (4.2 percent) during FY 2014-2015, it still fell short of target. Similarly, inflation is still high.
On the policy implementation front, Pakistan faces obstacles due to unclear or ambitious policy goals, lack of political commitment, bureaucratic hurdles and governance structure. The latter is ineffective because of lack of coordination among civil servants and political representatives. The proper implementation of any policy requires financial, technical and human resources. According to a report published by the Policy Research Institute of Market Economy in January 2015, the present government has shown a lacklustre attitude in implementing its economic agenda. Nevertheless, in some areas such as Pakistan Railways and policies regarding privatisation, the government has shown its strength in implementing policies. Again, in the energy sector, the government has failed to fulfil its promise of permanently eliminating circular debt. Moreover, Pakistan lacks an effective mechanism to cope with a plethora of intra-state conflicts and rivalries. For example, the issues of water distribution between the provinces, Kalabagh dam, and the distribution of financial assets between the Centre and the provinces need to be resolved.
Last but not least, the present government’s two years in office have shown little evidence of the policy of reconciliation towards other political parties or institutions of the state. The Supreme Court (SC) of Pakistan, with the active support of the PML-N, started victimising former president Pervez Musharraf after coming to power. Moreover, Nawaz Sharif attempted to control the former in terms of revising the India and Afghanistan policy but failed in his attempts. With China, Pakistan has improved upon its existing relations and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is supposedly its hallmark. However, this is only possible due to the military’s close ties with China.
To conclude, the overall performance of the Sharif government is very low as compared to its manifesto goals. Much is to be done in order to steer the country out of the multiple-pronged mess. The country’s leadership needs to broaden its strategic vision by enhancing local, regional and global cooperation. Moreover, it needs to overhaul existing ineffective policies and eliminate the orthodox mindset to halt Pakistan’s descent towards becoming a failing state.
The writer is a political scientist by training and professor by profession. He is a DAAD fellow and the author of Military Agency, Politics and the State in Pakistan. He tweets @ejazbhatty