Leaders from four countries attended the groundbreaking ceremony ofthe TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project to connect energy rich Central Asia with energy deficit South Asia via a gas pipeline in December 2015. TAPI,the long stalled project,was initially designed to supply gas to Pakistan through Afghanistan but, in April 2008, India also joined the project. Four heads of state signed the Gas Pipeline Framework Agreement (GPFA) during the Ashgabat Summitin December 2010 but, given the hard ground realities, the project could not gain momentum. Recently, leaders from Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and Turkmenistan gathered to launch the 1,814 km pipeline that would pass through Galkynysh, Turkmenistan toFazilka, India, via Herat-Helmand-Kandahar (Afghanistan) and Quetta-Multan (Pakistan).
Apart from other issues, the political factor has been the main hindrance in slowing down progress. The Indian Prime Minister’s (PM’s) visit to the Central Asian states in July somehow paved the way for the recent meeting of these heads of states. President Ghani described the project as the “New Silk Route” due to its significance for the Afghan economy asit would help Afghanistan generate revenue by getting a transit fee and enhancing employment opportunities. This project will benefit Afghanistan’s war economy and enable it to sustain its economic growth that is dependent on foreign aid, something that has been the biggest challenge for the Afghan government to deal with since the formation of a unity government in Afghanistan.
The actualisation of the project would be a win-win situation for all the states. Turkmenistan is believed to have the fourth largest gas reserves in the world after Russia, Iran and Qatar. Due to a lack of alternatives, it depends on Russia for gas exports but TAPI would enable it to diversify its supply routes, expand its customer base and enhance its revenue base.It would not only meet the energy needs of Pakistan by generating electricity but would also diversify Pakistan’s energy resources by reducing dependence on one source of energy and by giving Pakistan a bargaining leverage to negotiate the price of gas from other sources.As far as India is concerned, its growing economy needs a sustainable energy supply and TAPI would be the most suitable option.
The most significant hurdle in the actualisation of the project is the precarious security situation of Afghanistan. Herat, one of the largest provinces of southwest Afghanistan, shares a border with Iran and is a volatile region because of its proximity to Kandahar and Helmand, which are centres of resistance against foreign occupation forces. This proximity makes investors fearful of future insecurity. Secondly, there have been serious concerns regarding the capability of the Afghan security forces to secure the gas pipeline and the fall of Kunduz has further enhanced these concerns.
Apart from security considerations, the famedIndia-Pakistan rivalry and Pakistan-Afghanistan mistrust may have a negative impact on the pipeline project,which will create interdependency among the states and make them vulnerable to each other’s policies.India not just withdrew from the Iran-Pakistan-India(IPI) project but, due to lack of trust with its neighbours, also abandoned the tri-nation Myanmar-Bangladesh-India pipeline project that was to run through the Arakan state in Myanmar, then through the northeastern states of Mizoram and Tripura in India before crossing into Bangladesh and finally to Kolkata in West Bengal.
Furthermore, lack of clarity on financing is a concernas it has been announced that the pipeline project’s estimated cost will be $ 10 billion. Initially,the Asian Development Bank completed a feasibility study and various international companies showed interest in the project. Moreover, the role of regional as well as extra regional powers also matters as the corporate interests of different states have been a major factor in the delay of the project. In the past, the UShad been supportingthe TAPI project because it served its own geopolitical objectives.Inthe mid-1990s, the Union Oil Company of California (UNOCAL), a US-led consortium of California and Argentina’s BRIDAS were interested in the pipeline project butthe idea could not be transformed into reality due to the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan.
It is hoped that the TAPI project, if materialised,will present greater economic and political opportunities for all participating states. It could reintegrate the region and enhance cooperation but,at the same time, we cannot ignore the daunting challenges that kept the project stalled for so long.
The writer works at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) and can be reached at [email protected]