In statecraft and the history of societies and nations, harmony is one factor that has always remained paramount. With harmony and balance lacking, even the swiftest and most dominant of triumphs turn into disaster in no time. The Mughal Empire saw unparalleled reach and conquest under the reign of Aurangzeb, yet the Empire fell like a house of cards within a century and its failure had less to do with the failings of Aurangzeb’s successors and more with the fact that in expanding rapidly and expanding his reign, Aurangzeb had disturbed the vital balance, the harmony that had kept both India and the Mughal Empire afloat. And, in more cases than not, extreme actions aimed at changing the balance have led to the crumbling of empires and nations, for they expand the fissures and vulnerabilities that exist already.
And we need not ponder over examples of days gone by or empires gone by to understand this. For the secession of Bangladesh was preceded by Ayub’s era of “rapid industrialisation” (read cartelised wealth creation) that not only increased the class divide between the rich and ordinary but also enhanced the divide between the country’s east and west wings. Blame it on India, or politicians, or the scotch consumption and womanising of Yahya Khan, but the fact remains that at the root of the secession of East Pakistan was the sense of deprivation and exclusion that Bengalis felt. Not only that but people of my generation remember from our childhood days the stories we were told of the lethargy of Bengalis and how their claim of economic exclusion made no sense in light of that. Little did we know then that the ‘lethargic’ Bengalis contributed to the bulk of the country’s exports before secession. Nor did we comprehend that, in no time, the Bengalis would create an economy with higher median wage than us and higher forex reserves. So just when the stir, noise and chaos of partition were not enough to be managed, a rapid, lopsided wealth creation under Ayub Khan created an environment that was ripe for secession and that is what followed.
The reason I intend to bring this up here is because, if we look around, the signs of disturbance in harmony are all around us. Every military rule stirs the social fabric and contract of this society, and Musharraf’s was no exception. Lest we forget, at the end of Musharraf’s rule, the country was in a virtual civil war in two of the four provinces and Karachi was deemed to be on the verge of a three way conflict by many an official and independent intelligence assessment. Post Musharraf, the political class tried to reverse the tide and do damage control through inclusion and with the promulgation of the 18th Amendment and other measures aimed at empowering the federating units. The Musharraf era was also marred by rapid wealth creation in the urban areas that left rural economies at a disadvantage, widening the wealth gap. Through a combination of policies and the international economic climate, rural economies saw a boom fuelled by higher agricultural commodity prices. In the last few years, we saw the springing up of urban amenities in the heart of Punjab, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, mainly fuelled by record agri-commodity driven wealth generation. And just when the stir caused by radicalisation was enough to keep us afraid and jittery, we at least became relieved that provincial issues were being dealt with through inclusion and that the wealth was being distributed between urban and rural areas in symmetry.
However, in the last three years, this has been changing. In Mr Sharif’s third stint in power, as has been the case in his previous regimes, efforts are underway to move away from the federation and towards a centralised union. There are strong voices in all three provinces objecting to the priority being given to Punjab in development and infrastructure projects. Even allies of Mr Sharif from the minor provinces have cried foul over projects including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and other infrastructure projects. Not only that but even within Punjab, cries of preferential treatment of Lahore and Islamabad while ignoring the rest of the province are gaining steam. Just when the government is busy building billion-dollar flagship infrastructure projects in Lahore, the provision of basic amenities like healthcare and education is deteriorating further. And if this were not enough, the battle lines drawn between worker unions and the government over privatisation plans is all set to bring to the fore good old class warfare. The balance has been stirred and harmony disturbed. And that highlights shaky times ahead.
I do not know whether this stirring of harmony was inevitable or can solely be blamed on Mr Sharif and his power brokers’ whims and wishes but one thing is for sure: the stirring will have chaotic consequences. When wise men confront risk, they try to mitigate it. This sometimes includes backing down and respecting the harmony. Water, when feeling resistance, flows through vulnerable obstacles and paths. We have many of those vulnerabilities. It is not to shun development and progress but making it more inclusive that will provide it with a natural course to flow.
The author can be reached on twitter at @aalimalik