Reviewing the increasing number of hot spots for violent conflict, along with the long list of economic challenges facing the international community, reminded me of how fragile societies truly are. But no more so than with respect to democracies.
The democratic institutions we have created, the values that have been forged, the rights and freedoms that are now enshrined, along with the great Canadian mosaic that has given conscience to a world-respected set of core beliefs, are increasingly under threat. But for the first time in generations, the source of that existential threat is from within our very political culture that is now beset with economic uncertainty.
Although I have spent 30 years assisting in the mitigation, in one form or another, of an ever-transforming list of serious threats to Western civilization, never have I been as apprehensive. A perhaps unusual basis for that sentiment, but one that is emblematic of the problem, is the US Republican party nomination process. The unprecedented level of ugly public discourse in the run-up to the November general election will certainly cause important transformations to our politics, our economy and our collective security.
For early evidence, just look at the extreme or non-conventional parties voted in by the European public during their dark economic times – from Greece and Spain, to Hungary and Poland. What were once fringe parties or dying political movements, be they hyper-socialists, deep authoritarians, or extreme conservative traditionalists, are now alive and gaining strength.
Equally important, they all share the demagoguery gene, promising simple fixes to the most complex challenges experienced in modern times.
The drivers behind that public mood – growing inequality, a rapidly transforming global economy, disruptive technology, rising public cynicism, bloodthirsty religious zealots, asymmetrical threats defying traditional power, along with unstable markets – are motivating a base within our democracies that is cause for great concern.
In most Western countries, the common sentiment has shifted from the hopeful and helpful to the self-centered and spiteful. The most extreme manifestation of that shift is exemplified in comments by the Republican frontrunner, and on an issue of grave concern – torture. Donald Trump’s comments reflect an ugly emotional response to the threat of terrorist violence and economic uncertainty in this new 21st-century economy in which Western hegemony is perceived to be severely threatened by opaque threats conveyed by those “others.”
Torture does not deliver consistent, nor effective intelligence outcomes. Unlike Mr. Trump, who claims that he knows that it works and that we need more of it, I can testify to its abject failure. Moreover, its secondary and tertiary costs, such as increasing the number of would-be violent extremists, or the loss of moral equity that was once almost the exclusive preserve of Western democracies – underline a perverse and unsustainable logic.
So in assessing what drives that new line of political rhetoric and the mean-spiritedness that is at its core, one must look to economic dislocation. As we know, “the Donald’s” support base is a rather culturally homogenous group, one that increasingly struggles within a globalized economy. As such, his “proletariat,” or, some may suggest, his “shock troops,” led by the ultimate “shock jock,” take no prisoners and garner great pleasure in the knowledge that they, through Donald, will somehow strike back at those “others.”
Their anger is part of a larger movement that involves forms of anti-intellectualism, anti-progressiveness, anti-egalitarianism and, of course, anti-establishment. Pick your progressive cause or naturally transforming reality, from same-sex marriage to multiculturalism, and you will find its vocal and visceral antithesis standing behind Mr. Trump at both small town and big-city rallies. They vigorously applaud at every xenophobic exhortation and at each put-down.
The Republican Party frontrunner is the point man for the backlash against progress that occurs in all civilizations from time to time. But in this case, and at this time, it is directly linked to the global economic malaise that is transforming the narrative, along with the hopes and dreams of the previously faithful.
A former colleague at the CIA, deputy director (retired) Mike Morrell, was recently quoted as saying that the national security threat that keeps him awake at night is “the economy.”