About four decades back, the US and Nato troops aimed at saving Afghanistan from the Russian invasion. Then, the critics used to say that Afghanistan would be another Vietnam for America. Everyone knows the happenings in the region and globally afterwards. And, the story ended with an abrupt withdrawal of the US and Nato troops from Afghanistan last August (2021).
Strong believers in the war economy, the US and Nato troops, have entered Ukraine to save the country from another expected Russian invasion. The US government and media along with some EU and Nato countries are playing their “key role” in “informing” the world that Russia can invade Ukraine at any moment. They are rapidly building up a case for their “engagement to support” Ukraine against the Russian invasion. The campaign fueled up in the last couple of months with all the ‘great efforts’ by the big players. Now Russia-Ukraine is about to reach the point of no return. Hence, a great opportunity for the warmongers and the global defence weapon industry is on the way. The big powers are playing all their best to make the volcanic Russo-Ukraine conflict erupt sooner than later.
The war-mongers and their allies have been struggling for a decade to see the situation that has ripened now. It is the best time for them to fuel up the launch of a new hot pursuit quite successfully, and to ‘invest’ taxpayers’ money for global peace. All the same gimmicks. Fooling around on the same slogans and bestselling shout-outs. It is a must to see deep into the situation, historic perspective and the consequences for the region and global impact of the war that is ready at the moment. All the big players have gathered against Russia to defend Ukrainian borders. Many have entered the country. The only vested interest is to win over Ukraine for Nato and EU membership. Why is the Ukrainian membership of Nato and EU so important for the big players? Is it so simple or the only objective?
A big no to the aforementioned questions, and it is not so simple at all. The foremost question is why everything is disrupted between the two accommodating neighbouring states, Russia and Ukraine? They had a very cordial new beginning in 1991 with the independence of Ukraine after the disintegration of the USSR (the United States of Soviet Russia) – the worst impact of the cold war between the US and USSR. The country was trying to remain independent and impartial by balancing power with neighbouring Russia, European Union and Nato countries until February 2014 – the “Revolution of Dignity.”
Strong believers in the war economy have entered Ukraine to save the country from another expected Russian invasion.
The crisis began on 21 November 2013 after then-President Viktor Yanukovych suspended preparations for the implementation of an association agreement with the European Union, and to become a member of the Nato. The decision sparked mass protests in Ukraine from proponents of the agreement, resulting in the deposing of President Viktor Yanukovych. The pro-US elements in the country took over Ukraine. A big dent in the Russian strategic interest led to the Russo-Ukrainian War in February 2014. Primarily the war involved Russia and pro-Russian forces on one hand, and Ukraine on the other.
Ukraine, which was part of the Russian empire for centuries before becoming a Soviet republic, started moving to shed its Russian imperial legacy and forging increasingly close ties with the West. Deposing of the Kremlin-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych escalated the tension between the two countries, resulting in the Russian annexation of Crimea that escalated conflict.
Ukraine’s membership of the EU and the Nato will allow their forces to sit on the head of Russia blocking its route to the Black Sea, and action against the pro-Russian forces in Ukraine. It will be an irreparable economic and strategic loss to Russia that is rising once again with sustainable and stable growth. Countries in the region are joining the Russia-China strategic collaboration. The emerging regional bloc and the increasing role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are the core concerns of the US and the West. They need to curtail the emerging bloc to strengthen the unipolar world for their extremely hegemonic rule.
Geopolitical analyst Mercy A. Kuo believes that “There is more at stake for China if conflict erupts over Ukraine. China would be forced to take a position and choose a side. This would test China’s relationship with Russia. Similarly, the United States, Europe, and even countries in the Indo-Pacific may recalibrate relations with China based on Beijing’s response. If we interpret the China-Russia joint statement literally (that their relationship will not be “affected by the changing international environment and circumstantial changes in third countries”), China is likely to maintain its ties and engagements with Russia if conflict erupts. This means that China would not heed international calls to sanction or punish Russia.”
On the other hand, Russia has deployed about 14000 troops on the Ukrainian border and the West warmongers have entered Ukraine with their weapons. The peace-loving people and countries are waiting for sanity to prevail. The strategists are evaluating the US and Nato move and trying to draw a conclusion if Ukraine will be another Afghanistan for them.
The writer is an Islamabad-based policy advocacy, strategic communication and outreach expert. He can be reached [email protected]. He tweets @EmmayeSyed