Can bitcoin end Japan’s deflationary nightmare? This question may seem odd, considering Tokyo was site of the virtual currency’s biggest scandal. But as the Bank of Japan’s efforts to print trillions of dollars of cash backfire, it’s time to inject a dose of technology.
The BOJ’s negative interest rate policy is a case in point. Introduced on Feb. 16, the move shocked markets and had many Googling “NIRP.” While the European Central Bank had dabbled with it for some time, Japan’s step into the sub-zero world confounded many. None more so than Japan’s 126 million people, many of whom have taken to hoarding ¥10,000 bills to stash under tatami mats. BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda’s claims negative rates are working smack more of denial than confidence, something in little supply before the BOJ made things worse. As growth evaporates, odds are that Kuroda will churn even more cash into markets. That would be akin to applying an analog solution to a digital-world glitch. The BOJ, you see, doesn’t have a financial problem, but an equipment one.
Perhaps the most intriguing remedy comes courtesy of monetary technologist Andy Haldane. No, Haldane, 48, isn’t an engineer or tech geek – he’s the Bank of England’s chief economist. Yet he’s carving out a place for himself as a futurist in an era of antiquated thinking. Haldane’s biggest idea? Central banks scrapping cash and employing block- chain mediums to influence business and consumer behavior. Haldane began making this most undoctrinaire of arguments in a series of speeches in late 2015, mostly to rolled eyes and shaking heads. But now, the BOJ’s failure to translate billions of new high-denomination yen bills – and negative rates – into economic growth is vindicating them. Central banks, he argues, can really only lower rates so much, what economists call the “zero lower bound” problem, or ZLB. Pushing them negative is only encouraging consumers to pull paper money out of banks – and in the case of Japanese, buy household safes. Abolishing notes and coins could give central bankers the traction quantitative easing lacks.
The problem is that QE is now a semi-permanent feature of financial systems from Tokyo to Washington and expectations have been quick to adjust. That’s rendered rate cuts and massive bond buying programs useless. They’re maintaining current levels of activity, not stimulating new demand as consumers convert deposits into hard cash. A digital currency would remove that option.
“One interesting solution,” Haldane argues, “would be to maintain the principle of a government-backed currency, but have it issued in an electronic rather than paper form. This would preserve the social convention of a state-issued unit of account and medium of exchange, albeit with currency now held in digital rather than physical wallets. But it would allow negative interest rates to be levied on currency easily and speedily, so relaxing the ZLB constraint.”