As the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) looks towards the next parliamentary elections, it is increasingly likely that as a single party it will not receive sufficient votes to hold an absolute majority in parliament in its own right. Despite claims by Imran Khan about the extent of their impending victory, none is likely in the manner in which it is being touted. As a result, the next government can be expected to be formed through an alliance or coalition of parties.
In the past few days a rival group of political parties and leaders have engaged in rallies aimed at forming a non-ideologically coherent wing alliance. Speculation about another alliance of the PTI, Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Jamaat-e-Islami is the latest manifestation of the Panama leaks fever, now sweeping through the ranks of these who inhabit the precincts of anti-corruption agenda. Though not announced yet but it is quite obvious that Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) would also be part of the agenda.
Already the new political party, the PSP, is up and running, and Syed Mustafa Kamal and Anees Qaimkhani are attempting to develop an alliance of politicians inside and outside Mutahidda Qaumi Movement (MQM); now an effort is being made from the powers of corridors to put together a new grouping. The hard-to-convince PTI are also attempting to develop a co-ordinated approach to an alliance with the PPP, but with opinion polls and obvious PTI intra-party rifts showing that perhaps only about a quarter of the electorate may be prepared to vote for such an alliance, a huge political suicide risk clearly exists, but the competition to try and tap into that expansive mood is just too hard to resist.
Kamal was the first out of the blocks early in the year, although there had been speculation for more than a year that the ‘rebels’ in the MQM would ultimately end up forming a new party. In the event, a few MQM MNAs and MPAs led by Kamal took the plunge, and a new party was born. The initial surprise was that Kamal did not aim to establish a niche party with conservative policies on social issues. Instead, the party took the view that on issues such as local development and devolving centralised power it could adopt positions that coincided with their consciences. The emphasis has been on buzzwords such as openness, change and reform, without too much detail about what all of that would entail apart from the need to abolish the whip system.
There have been some comparisons with the foundation of the MQM but the economic circumstances now are very different. Then the economy was stagnant, democracy was hijacked and an air of hopelessness was all- pervasive. Now the economy is on a clear recovery path after the crash. More to the point, the PML-N is working with a series of detailed and some controversial policies on a range of issues rather than aiming to be another catchall party with a feel-good message.
Nevertheless, the members who formed the PSP had the guts to set up a new political party, with all of the organisational difficulties and funding headaches that entails but with the clear aim to have the balance of power in the Sindh politics after the next elections. The PTI, Jamaat-e-Islami and PPP clearly have a similar ambition of making themselves relevant to the formation of government, but they are going about it in a different way. Their intention is to build an alliance of likeminded people inside and outside parliament who are committed to a common set of broad policies. The PPP may also be part of the PTI alliance group against Nawaz Sharif and Panama leaks corruption scandal, but that would require accepting a wide ideological spectrum.
A recent triad of rallies in major cities was attended by millions of supporters from around the country, but, so far, the expected launch of the alliance has not taken place. The aim is not to form a strategic political alliance but to get the best of both worlds by attracting votes under the anti-corruption alliance banner while having the leverage of a political party in post-election negotiations. Khan is aware that the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Anwar Zaheer Jamali may be under pressure when the judicial commission hits its final phase and the electorate begins to lose confidence in the PTI and its policies to march in repeated rallies against corruption. It is all very fine and dandy to offer the electorate fresh incentives but they have to make themselves relevant to the big issues of the day. Ultimately, the question is whether the proliferation of small parties and alliances will lead to further fragmentation of Pakistani politics or whether they will end up getting in each other’s way. They might even scare voters back to the stability represented by traditional parties.
One question springs to mind given the results: what would Pakistan’s political scene be like if Imran Khan loses his clout and gradually becomes less of a factor? Surely, the PTI would remain as the nation’s largest opposition party over the next four years, but its downfall could put an end to the nation’s long-standing political divide. However, although the PTI seems to be gaining momentum, the prospect of it winning a majority in the next election as a single party does not look promising. That is primarily because voters are less likely to put all their eggs in one basket. The nation has learned the hard way that a party can wreak havoc if it has absolute power. Hence, people might vote for nonpartisan candidates or those representing smaller parties in the hope of creating other forces to check the powers of the PML-N and the PPP in the legislature. Such changes in the political arena could see more new alliances and coalitions emerge in rapid succession.
The writer is a professor of psychiatry and consultant forensic psychiatrist in the UK. He can be contacted at [email protected]