Despite all calculations and analysis, Taliban again took reigns of Afghanistan after ‘the longest war’; in a nutshell all calculations were miscalculations and analyses were incoherent and irrational. The ground realities were misread which were opposite to what was presented on the slides. Fast-forward it to 2050 and historians would be able to have a better perspective of where the things went awry, when everything was visibly visible. The voracity, rapaciousness and unscrupulous power leads to blindness and re-investment in a failed venture with no clear objectives in sight, leads to nothing but failure. And when finally it was realized that how much things are skewed, there was nothing left but to leave everything in ’embers’, which like the 90s have the ability to burn and cause distant fires.
The regional and the world powers have ‘finally’ realized that peace in Afghanistan is a necessity and be given a chance; a plea which was made by Pakistan in the 90s as well. In the current scenario, peace in Afghanistan may have a chance since the world does not have the stomach to ingest a repeat of 9/11 which changed the world once, and for all generations to come. It was ‘the longest war’ and the bloodiest for Pakistan as well and, rationally speaking, with all figures and all ‘calculations’, Pakistan lost more than any other country except Afghanistan.
US, China, Russia and Pakistan are the key players which have long been active participants in Afghan peace talks and have major stakes involved. These key players established Troika Plus for bringing peace to Afghanistan, develop regional consensus on Afghan issue and help the war-torn country in addressing the problems.Troika Plus is a positive step towards peace in Afghanistan, which have direct effects and implications for regional and world peace. The last meeting was held in Doha on 11 August, attended by all stakeholders, yet US did not participate in another meeting hosted by Russia in Moscow, on 19 October, which did ring some bells.
The peace-talks are back on track with all key players gathering for a moot in Islamabad today (11 November) which will be the first meeting of Troika Plus after Taliban’s take-over of Afghanistan. This meeting acquires more importance, since Afghanistan’s interim foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi would join the special envoys of Troika Plus to discuss the way forward. The meeting will also be significant from Afghanistan’s perspective to make grounds for the international community’s recognition of Taliban-led government. The efforts of Troika Plus are likely to have a positive effect for the region and have direct implications on security and economy of the region.
On the negative side, when all out efforts are being made, spoilers are playing their own game, which have all the elements for conflagration and an unstable region. The recent spate of attacks by ISIS in Afghanistan is one cause of concern. Alongside, where such positive steps are underway for establishing a long and lasting peace in Afghanistan, India is at its old games. Despite recent setbacks in Afghanistan, India seems not to have learned. India hosted a Delhi Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan and chaired by none other than Modi’s RSS star, NSA AjitDoval. Likely, seven countries including Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are participating. Pakistan and China refused to attend and the people who are at the helm in Afghanistan, the Taliban, were never invited. Makes one wonder, why India is so pushed about Afghanistan, and what does it want to achieve? Is it that the ‘adventurer cum spymaster’ wants to remain viable and in the limelight? Is India still trying to topple the current Afghan regime? Is India trying to cut its losses and still trying to portray Washington that it is a viable player in the Afghan domain? Is India trying to hit at China for its setbacks in Galwan valley and Doklam? Whatever narrative India is spawning and in whichever scenario it is played at, India emerges as a spoiler to the efforts of Troika Plus and ultimately a chance for peace of Afghanistan.
The efforts of key players albeit Troika Plus need to be more expeditious, concrete and fruit-bearing. Today, Pakistan has the ability to be a good host and play the role of fulcrum between the key players and Taliban-led government. The participants need to be more flexible yet bear in mind the time sensitivity since the overhang of unpredictability would only give more chance to the spoilers. Let there be peace in Afghanistan.