As the US unceremoniously bid farewell to Afghanistan after a 20-year war on terrorism, the Taliban takeover escalated at a tremendous speed. On the 15th of August 2021, the world woke up to the dawn of a new threat as the newsrooms and social media spaces reported, ‘Kabul has fallen’. This Taliban takeover also marked the end of President Ashraf Ghani’s rule in Afghanistan, as he took a plane and fled Kabul. The Afghan Taliban soon entered the capital city and later on took control over the presidential palace as they did in most of the country. As the uncertainty and terror descended upon Afghanistan, flags were hoisted over the government buildings and religious sites to declare the victory of the Aghan Taliban.
Now that the Afghan Taliban are back in power, pundits begin to wonder whether they will be able to rule Afghanistan like a modern nation-state i.e. ensuring universal human rights. Analysts also wonder what might be their style of governance, how will they manage the economy, do they have a road map for the future? And countless other pertinent questions which merit answers. However, the most important of all questions is, can the Taliban keep their promises? Despite their assurances to the international community that the Afghan soil will not be used against any country by any terror outfit, people have begun to question as the Taliban get hailed by terror organisations around the world. It is no secret that the Taliban have enjoyed widespread support from these groups.
Taliban’s relations with the international community will depend on how they deal with the grave challenges in countering these terror organisations.
From a purely security-centric point of view, the Afghan Taliban have to satisfy concerns of not just Pakistan with regards to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan but also Uzbekistan and Russia for their concerns relating to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Moreover, China’s concerns regarding the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which China considers an imminent threat to its national security. Meanwhile, Iran has its own agenda regarding Jundullah. The list doesn’t end here as yet, the Afghan Taliban have also assured the US that they will not let Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIK) operate from Afghanistan. The list is long and the expectations are big. So the question that arises in one’s mind is: will the Taliban be able to satisfy the concerns of their immediate neighbours along with concerns of the US–a superpower they fought a war with for a little over two decades? Taliban’s relations with the international community will depend on how they deal with these grave challenges in countering these terror organisations.
The situation in Afghanistan is continuously developing. Questions keep coming up, some perhaps get answered, many otherwise go unanswered. Questions like, whether the Afghan Taliban will put aside their ideological brethren and focus on the state interests? If yes, how do they plan on dealing with the backlash? If not, how do they plan on taking care of their countrymen? In the latter case, the Afghan Taliban will likely face serious repercussions i.e. international sanctions and more but neighbouring countries will face the brunt as well, though to what extent is something only time will tell.
As Yuval Noah Harari puts it, “Questions that cannot be answered are far better than answers that cannot be questioned”.
The writer is a student of international relations with a particular interest in foreign policy and international political developments in South Asia. He can be reached at [email protected] and tweets @mustafa_wynne.