The South China Sea is a crucial link in the ‘global commons’ connecting the Pacific to the Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf and Europe. Right now it is the most contested piece of sea in the world. Under the Law of the Sea Convention, all states have a right to 200 nautical mile ‘exclusive economic zone’ to exploit the resources of the sea and seabed as measured from their land territories. Where these zones overlap, countries are obliged to negotiate with other claimants. This has yet to happen in the South China Sea, which is the source of many of current tensions. During World War II, the South China Sea islands were all occupied by Japan.
The People Republic of China, founded in 1949, claimed the islands as part of the province of Canton (Guangdong), and later of the Hainan special administrative region. There are three major reasons Beijing attempts to take control of the disputed South China Sea. First, Beijing claims roughly 90 percent of the sea, which encompasses an area of around 3.5 million square kilometres and considers it ‘key to China’s security’. Second, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese nuclear ballistic missile submarines, which may need to move west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear deterrence against the US. Thirdly, the South China Sea will serve as a buffer zone for China if and when the US conducts military assault against mainland China.
Beijing claims roughly 90 percent of the South China Sea and considers it key to its security. The Sea is also important for the strategic patrol of Chinese nuclear ballistic missile submarines. And, finally, the South China Sea will serve as a buffer zone for China if and when the US conducts military assault against mainland China
The South China Sea is bordered by Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The southern boundary of the South China Sea is a rise in the seabed between Sumatra and Borneo, and the northern boundary stretches from the northernmost point of Taiwan to the coast of Fujian province. The main route to and from Pacific and Indian Ocean ports is through the Strait of Malacca. Generally, oil and minerals move north, and food and manufactured goods move south. The South China Sea disputes involve both islands and maritime claims by several sovereign states within the region.
Huge oil and natural gas reserves are believed to lie beneath its seabed. It also contains lucrative fisheries, which are crucial for the food security of millions in Southeast Asia. It accounts for at least a third of the global maritime trade over US$ 3 trillion as one-third of the world’s maritime shipping passes through it. According to the US Energy Information Agency, it is estimated that the South China Sea holds about fourteen trillion barrels of natural gas and sixteen to thirty-three billion barrels of oil in proven and probable reserves. Most of which are situated along the margins of the South China Sea. While huge oil and natural gas reserves are said to lie beneath its seabed, it is also a fishing ground crucial for food security.
The US government pursues ‘freedom of navigation’ in the South China Sea for her strategic allies in the region, which includes unimpeded lawful trade and commerce as well as the exercise of high seas freedoms associated with non-hostile military activities within the EEZ of China. The competing claimant states are interested in retaining or acquiring the rights to fishing stocks, the exploration and potential exploitation of crude oil and natural gas in the seabed of various parts of the South China Sea, and the strategic control of important shipping lanes.
China recognises the problem and is scared that the US and its allies may restrain Beijing from multiple directions. To counter China’s expanding influence in the Asia-Pacific region, the US has also brought together Australia, Japan and India under the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an informal strategic forum for information exchanges and military drills between members. In 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague ruled against Chinese claims to rights in the South China Sea, backing a 2013 case brought by the Philippines. The court said China’s claims of historic rights within the nine-dash line, which Beijing uses to demarcate its claims in the South China Sea, were without legal foundation.
The focus of foreign policy is universally shifting from geopolitics to geo-economics. Pakistan is a beneficiary of all CPEC related projects being implemented in the region and Pakistan’s special affiliation with China gives it an advantage in the Asia-Pacific region. If there is a hard power rivalry and contest in South China Sea, both the regional as well as the Chinese economies are bound to suffer unfavourably. Pakistan and China friendship, described by the leadership of both countries as higher than mountains, deeper than the oceans, and of late, sweeter than honey, is a unique case in the international system we live in, yet the relationship is based on sound geo-strategic and pragmatist calculations.
The writer is a retired Pakistan army officer