It almost feels like déjà vu.The current situation in Afghanistan reminds one of 1991when the USabandoned the Afghan Mujahedeento their own devices when it had achieved its strategic objective: the ouster of USSR and fall of the Soviet Najibullah regime. What followed was a bloody civil war followed by the Taliban regime and the subsequent US invasion post 9/11.
Now the US is again abandoningAfghanistan in chaos.Signing the peace deal with the Taliban, the US has secured a safe exit for itself. According to three Western officials,the deal has a secret annexensuring that the Taliban will provide a “ring of protection” to the western military bases from attacks by rival, or rogue Islamist groups. Indeed, 2020 proved to be the year with the lowest number of U.S. fatalities in Afghanistan since the war began. But there is no such annex for the Afghan people who are in the line of fire. According to a report by the UN Assistance Mission in the country (UNAMA), there has been a spike in civilian casualties since peace negotiations started in September last year.
US legitimized the Taliban by signing the peace deal and gave impetus to their status as they have claimed the US withdrawal as a victory and see themselves as a government in waitingand thus continue to spread terror and gain territory without feeling the need to engage in dialogue. The bloodshed and violencecontinues to riseas the targets are Afghan security personnel and innocent civilians esp. religious and ethnic minorities like the Hazaras. In May, 405 pro-government forces and 260 civilians were killed in terror attacks across the country, the highest total death toll in a single month since July 2019.
As the violence resurges, Afghan government is slowly losing its grip.The moral of the security force is plunging as the Taliban have been capturing bases and other strategic points. Since May 1st, at least 26 outposts and bases in four provinceshavesurrendered after negotiations.
The Afghan government also needs to realize that incendiary rhetoric will not help the situation. Kabul must adopt the way of cooperation instead of confrontation
With no progress in the peace talks between the government and Taliban, Afghanistan is on the crossroads of another bloody civil war. Unless a power sharing agreement is reached, it seems unlikely that the Afghan government would be able to hold its own for long without the US military technology and airpower.
Added to this complex equation are the ethnic factions led by Afghan warlords. Divided on ethnic lines,they killed 100,000 peopleand ravaged Kabul in the civil war from 1992 to 1996.Recently, the warlords have flexed their muscle to put up resistance fronts against the Taliban. The Afghan government might form alliances with some of the warlords making the conflict more complicated.
A civil war in Afghanistan will be disastrous not only for Afghanistan but also for the region. Indeed, the regional players are highly concerned about the potential conflict and its ramifications. Pakistan cannot afford a civil war in its neighborhood as it would mean a spillover of militancy and refugee crisis. China needsstability for its flagship Belt Road Initiative(of which Afghanistan is a part) and CPEC to move ahead smoothly. Moreover, the Chinese are wary that a Taliban militancy would encourage the Islamist groups in Xinjiang thus creating an insurgency. India is worried that a Taliban government would increase militancy in Kashmir.
To prevent Afghanistan from descending into further chaos, it is important that a joint mechanism should be developed by Russia, China, Iran, India and Pakistan to strategically engage the Afghan government and the Taliban towards a political settlement. Treating Afghanistan as an amphitheater for cold war and supporting proxies will only result in escalation of the conflict and destabilization of the region.It is high time to shift the paradigm vis a vis Afghanistan from geostrategic togeo-economic.
Afghan crisis presents an opportunity for the regional players to cooperate for peace and stability. Indeed, Indo-Pak and Sino-Indian rivalries in the region are the major roadblocks to peace and development in South Asia. Pakistan’s need for strategic depth and leverage in Afghanistan has been linked to its fear of double encirclement by having hostile governments on its eastern and western fronts. For India, a Pakistan friendly government means losing leverage in the region and risk of militancy in Kashmir. A long-term solution of the Afghanistan conflict is linked with peace between regional power players.
The Afghan government also needs to realize that incendiary rhetoric will not help the situation. Kabul must adopt the way of cooperation instead of confrontation.Without the support of regional players, it will be a zero-sum game for everyone involved. The stakeholders must act now before it is too late. Otherwise, we might be on the edge of impending doom.
The writer works for an international aid agency. He loves watching world cinema and having intellectually stimulating conversations