After tailing off a few years ago, greenfield foreign direct investment in the aerospace sector appears to be starting an ascent again.
Whether this upswing can continue against fears of a slowdown in passenger traffic and a decrease in orders of new aircraft remains to be seen.
If it can, several emerging-market countries are poised to continue their own momentum in attracting coveted aerospace investments.
Some 165 cross-border greenfield investment projects from aerospace companies were announced or initiated in other countries in 2012, totalling an estimated $9.02 billion in capital, according to fDI Markets, an Financial Times data service.
This marked an increase on the previous year when there were only 156 projects valued at $6.5 billion. But in 2013, project numbers dropped down to 112 and capital invested nearly halved to $4.53 billion.
Since then, the numbers have been trending upwards again, rising to 146 projects valued at $5.69 billion in 2014 and 156 projects at $6.02 in 2015.
The US and the UK remain the high flyers of the sector. The US ranks as top destination for aerospace project numbers, attracting an estimated $3.27 billion of capital investment between 2011
and 2015.
The UK received both the most total investment ($5.49 billion overall) and the largest average investment ($91.5 million per project).
But emerging-market players are gaining altitude. Mexico has seen the biggest number of total jobs created through inward investment in the sector in 2011-2015, with nearly 6,000, while the United Arab Emirates has the largest headcount with 1,050 jobs per project on average.
Singapore is the top destination city accounting for more than 5 per cent of projects tracked during the period, while Bangalore has the highest total investment at
$1.15 billion.
Half of the top 10 list of most popular destinations for greenfield investment in the sector over the past five years is made up of developing countries — in fact, more than half, depending on how Singapore (ranked sixth) is classed.
China comes in at number three, following the top-ranked US and UK. Mexico ranks fourth and India fifth. The UAE (seventh) and Brazil (ninth) round out the list.
Meanwhile, a ranking published by fDi Magazine, an Financial Times publication that is affiliated with fDi Markets and draws on its data for its indices, ranked Singapore, Dubai and Shanghai, respectively, as the three most attractive cities in the world for aerospace investment. Bangalore (ranked fifth), Beijing (sixth), Mexico’s Querétaro (eighth) and Tianjin in China (tenth) also appear on the shortlist.
The ranking is based on factors including economic potential, FDI performance, cost effectiveness, innovation and attractiveness, and connectivity.
Courtney Fingar is head of content at fDi Intelligence, an FT data division