The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has resurfaced with heavy armed clashes and dozens of deaths on both the sides. For the past few days one can witness the growing conflict from silent to a visible vociferous war. According to news reports, more than 16 people have been killed along the ‘line of contact’ and over 100 people have been wounded in the worst fighting in four years. Time and again ceasefire violations have been reported at both ends, but this time it escalated at an unimaginable velocity. The global leaders and states calls for an immediate ceasefire and talks between the two nations.
The Nagorno-Karabakh region is one of the world’s oldest conflicts, based on territorial dispute between two ex-Soviet republics. Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized as a part of Azerbaijan but it is controlled by ethnic Armenians. In 1988, as the Soviet Union was collapsing, there emerged a conflict between Azerbaijani troops and Armenian secessionists, leaving Nagorno-Karabakh in the hands of ethnic Armenians. In 1994 a truce was called and since then it is in the hands of Armenian separatists. In 2016 the conflict again erupted leaving hundreds of causalities on both sides, in just a span of four days before a ceasefire was announced. It was the deadliest since 1994 skirmish. After decades of bloodshed, this conflict still remains unresolved and depicts a picture of a ‘frozen conflict’.
The risks of renewed hostilities have become a reality for past few days, mainly due to the absolute failure of intervention and mediation, amplification in the militarization at both the borders, and recurrent cease-fire violations. Now, it is a responsibility of the United Nations and the Minsk Group, a mediation group lead by the OSCE to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Minsk group is co-chaired by France, the Russian Federation, and the United States. The apparent volume of the conflict, if not timely restrained predicts a bloodshed and extreme disruption of peace in Caucasus. An immediate call and sincere efforts for ceasefire should be made by influential powers before it becomes a large-scale military conflict. The conflict already involves the use of tanks, artillery, missile systems, aircraft and drones hinting at a number of civilian causalities and displaced people.
If the conflict goes unresolved in due course, it can escalate into a conventional and unconventional war, disrupting the regional peace and the oil and gas exports to Europe and central Asia as Azerbaijan is a significant exporter. The South Caucasus attracts the regional and western concerns mainly due to gas and oil supply to the global markets. Keeping in view the actors and their support involved to both Azerbaijan and Armenia, the conflict needs to be resolved as soon as possible. Russia clearly supports Armenia as their economic and military alliance is very strong. Both are predominantly orthodox Christian states and Russian assistance to Armenia is not hidden, as there is a Russian military base near its second-largest city. Azerbaijan has got genuine support from Turkey, as backing has been offered to Azerbaijan, their fellow Muslim country.
As a result of the recent skirmish, are we witnessing another show of big powers in Nagorno-Karabakh, just like they flexed muscles in Syria and Libya to exhibit their power in the region? Is the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict fast becoming a fertile ground for other players? Is Russia through military influence in Armenia posing a regional hegemony undermining Azerbaijan’s sovereignty? We will come to know all these details sooner than later.
Mariam Shah is an Islamabad based independent researcher with an MPhil degree in Peace and Conflict Studies.