The India-China standoff continues amidst reports that India has banned 59 Chinese Apps as a retaliation to the Chinese action at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Galwan Valley of Ladakh region, a tri-junction where China, India and Pakistan face each other with a history of bloody wars—Pakistan-India wars of 1948, 1965, 1971, 1999, and Indo-China war of 1962. The Indian action is certainly going to further aggravate the situation, which China has described as a serious development and “a violation of World Trade Organization (WTO) rules”. There are reports that after meeting on 6th July, the two sides have started de-escalation which Indian Ministry of External Affairs has confirmed and acknowledged that Chinese forces have started removing tents from the Galwan area.
Indian government’s action against Chinese companies has set the tone for the future contours of its policy towards China. Frédéric Bastiat famously claimed that “if goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will.” However, this notion is being challenged in the current Sino-Indian standoff as $90 billion bilateral trade has failed to deter the two giants to avoid military confrontation. Same goes for US-China confrontation which initially began with trade war but fast heading for a cold war of yesteryears. The global architecture which revolved around UN system for maintenance of peace and security, and Bretton woods system to sustain nations economically is being challenged with renewed thrust for protectionist policies. This does not augur well for the world peace.
It is not just India and China which have been embroiled in the Ladakh region as Pakistan’s claim on Ladakh as part of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute is equally important if a durable peace is intended by the three countries. Therefore, the moot question is whether a tri-lateral mechanism between India, China and Pakistan could be evolved to sort out political issues through dialogue and concord, because the ongoing tussle between the three countries has clearly demonstrated that in the absence of political understanding their “route to peace through trade” has already hit the road blocks and has failed to bring about peace in the region.
The third front for India is a simmering volcano ready to erupt in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir which poses much bigger a threat than ongoing tussle with China
Given the series of actions taken by India in the past few months, it is becoming apparent that RSS-dominated dispensation in the country mistook its domestic successes as a ticket to dictating terms in the neighbourhood or establish hegemony in the region. For instance, Indian commentators now admit that Modi government’s action of 5th August last year whereby it created a Union Territory of Ladakh and issued a new map showing Aksai Chin as part of India has actually annoyed the Chinese. The Chinese action in Galwan Valley by pushing the LAC further inside Indian-claimed territory has emerged as a “new normal” and presented as a fait accompli despite protestations from the Indian officials. It is also China’s veiled warning to India that the latter’s attempts to sabotage China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) would have serious consequences.
Secondly, according to media reports, the recent meetings between military commanders were quite shocking for the Indians when they were told by the Chinese side that the existing positions of the Chinese troops should be reflected in the joint minutes before Chinese may agree to withdraw their troops. It looks like a poetic justice. Way back in 1992, Pakistan and Indian Defence Secretaries talks on Siachen which were successfully concluded and both sides were about to sign the dotted lines when the Indian army sabotaged the agreement at the last minute by insisting that “current positions of the troops on both sides” should be reflected in the agreement before withdrawal takes place from the Siachen glaciers.
Thirdly, the current situation in Ladakh, in reality, is beyond two-front situation between India-China and India-Pakistan as overwhelming Kashmiri population is against Indian occupation ever since India and Pakistan got independence. After Modi government’s re-occupation of the Jammu and Kashmir state on 5th August last year through revocation of Article 370 and 35A, and turning the state into a lower status of Union Territory (UT), along with imposition of worst kind of lockdown for over 11 months, the Kashmiri sentiments against India, which were already running high, have become so charged that a small spark can turn into an inferno and sweep the entire state. Despite media curbs, some objective Indian analysts are warning the Modi government not to underestimate the impending dangers and control Hindutva zealots of spilling their populist sentiments beyond country’s borders. A reality check shows that it’s not only the loss of Galwan valley for the Indians but the entire Kashmir valley and three Muslim majority districts of Jammu region as well as parts of Ladakh, where anti-Indian sentiments run high, may enhance Indian vulnerability should Pakistan decides to change the status quo. Therefore, the third front for India is a simmering volcano ready to erupt in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir which poses much bigger a threat than ongoing tussle with China.
Fourthly, in South Asia, Modi’s ultra-nationalist pursuits have annoyed India’s neighbours due to variety of reasons. Nepal is protesting over Indian occupation of its territory in Kalapani while Bangladesh despite Sheikh Hasina’s closeness with India is in a state of shock over delisting of millions of Bengali Muslims, who are being declared as “illegal migrants from Bangladesh”. Consequently, popular sentiments in Bangladesh have turned against India. Similarly, Sri Lanka has just overcome the nightmare of Indian interference by stoking Tamil insurgency which lasted for three decades. Not only that, even tiny Bhutan and Maldives are looking for Chinese partnership after facing Indian interference for decades. Indian analysts are particularly concerned that China has steadily made ingresses into India’s neighbourhood to the extent that its borders have become vulnerable from all corners.
Unfortunately, it was India which created a “new normal” with Pakistan after it intruded into Pakistan territory and attacked Balakot last year. Pakistan’s matching response by shooting down Indian aircraft and capture of its pilot was a serious warning to the Indian leadership that its actions would be reciprocated with matching response. Now India is faced with “new normal” situation with China although this time it is China which has written the rules of the game creating a security dilemma for the Indian strategic thinkers who are warning that the vast disparity that India is facing against China in terms of economy and military capabilities, any attempt to raise temperatures with China would be detrimental to India’s interests. Certainly, Mr. Modi’s dilemma is that he is riding a lion which he cannot ride or dismount.
What options do we have? Sanity demands a pragmatic approach towards establishing peace and tranquility in the region. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s proposal to Prime Minister Modi in Chennai in October last year of holding trilateral dialogue between India, China and Pakistan was ignored by Mr. Modi. Mr. Xi’s proposal has merit; the later events should serve as a stark reality to Mr. Modi that a negotiated settlement of disputes is always better than sabre rattling or use of force to establish hegemony.
The writer is a former ambassador and Senior Research Fellow at IPRI