The change is very common word in Pakistan. Every party and government beat the drum of change. Problems keep on changing but the solution remains the same “the change”. Despite the continuous failure of successive parties and governments, people still believe in the slogan of change. There can be two reasons of this belief, either people are too innocent, or they do not have option, except to believe. The second reason seems to be more realistic, as the elite of Pakistan has captured the whole system. We need to be clear here that elite comprises of all segments of society like politics, media, establishment (civil and non-civil), think tanks, NGOs, and professional organizations.
Although, the pomposity of change by elite has introduced multifaceted problems but the worst hit area is the economy. Economy has been victimized in a systematic way and resources has been concentrated in few hands. Every change in our history benefited the elite of country. It seems that the elite has designed change by altering the definition of democracy as “Change of the elite, for the elite and by the common people”.
The story started with the mantra of industrialization(1960s), followed by nationalization (1970s), Islamiztaion(1980s), the liberalization and now the Rayasat-e-Medina. However, the state of economy keeps on deteriorating and now Pakistan is facing most desperate situation. During the last one and half decade Pakistan’s economy is in shamble. Despite the massive program of CPEC, Pakistan is still struggling to find the path for economic recovery. People of Pakistan elected the PTI government with the expectation that it will bring real change, as it is claiming for more than two decades. Unfortunately, people are still looking for signs of change, and it seems that we are living in past and PTI has turned back to old school of economic management.
Proper investment can bring new avenues of development in future. Unfortunately, agriculture is the most neglected area. Farmers are being exploited by one way or other
The most disturbing part is that government seems obsessed with the word of international expert like the past. The only change is that the opposition to or failure of foreign expats has introduced the Pakistani expats. The argument is that they know global system and can refine Pakistan’s system. If this is the argument, then we can read books of best practices and start to apply here. The real problem is to tailor the best practices to local realities, which require the local wisdom. Hence, Pakistan needs people who understand the local system and know what resources we have, what is our strength and what we need.
Let’s start with the local realities. Pakistan’s literacy rate is only 60 percent. It means that we have 88.4 million (total population 221 million) people who are completely uneducated, even cannot write or read their name. If we further analyse the data, we will find that there is huge number of people who can only read and write their names or under primary, matric or madrassa students. The highest number of poor would be in these segments of population.
Second question would be what resources we have? It is open secret that economic condition of Pakistan is bleak. Country is deeply stuck in debt. We are struggling to pay back interest on debt and for that purpose we are borrowing more from here and there. Foreign reserves are on lower side. Pakistan celebrated hot money, which flew with the first shock of COVID-19. Current account deficit, which government was managing by controlling import, again shoot up. It stands at US$ 2.2 billion in April 2020. Millions of SMEs are closing. We can say it is side effect of COVID-19 but even before the COVID-19 business environment was not supportive for business. Large scale production was going down already, it decreased by 22.95 percent in March 2020 from March 2019. Besides, we are not ready to understand that our economy is stuck between primary and secondary stages of economy. The worst part is that we are insisting to plan according to tertiary stage of economy. For that reason, we love to import experts.
Third question is what is our strength? The simple answer would be agriculture, at this stage of development. It provides employment to 38.5 percent labor force and contribute 18.5 percent in GDP. It has the potential to export US$ 5-6 billion at the present state of development. It is also source of raw material for biggest export sector of Pakistan, the textile along with leather industry etc. Therefore, the indirect contribution would be much more than the 38.5 percent. Proper investment can bring new avenues of development in future. Unfortunately, agriculture is the most neglected area. Farmers are being exploited by one way or other. Even farmers’ name is misused by interest groups to save taxes at the name of small farmers and to get subsidies etc. Every government talks a lot about it, but actual actions are very limited. PTI government was busy to highlight that they are bringing revolution in sector, but one attack of locust exposes the whole system. We are seeking help from China to control it. The second strength is CPEC, which is mega project with multifaceted benefits for Pakistan.
In these circumstances, what we need? Pakistan needs wisdom and commitment from the ruling elite. It does not require international experts with millions of years’ experience. The word wisdom is very important, and it should not be mixed with street smartness, which is quite prevalent in Pakistan. Unfortunately, ruling elite does not seem to be interested in it rather they are busy to present street smartness as wisdom. Street smartness has been applied by elite in a very clever way. For example, they hire big names and present that they have hired the best brain from the world, and all the problems will be solved soon. Regrettably, it is not helping, rather it creates multiple problems.
First, it discourages local people in the system, which impact their efficiency and will to do work. As they feel there is no use of work or service, as there is no recognition or path for their progress. Second the imported stuff does not have much knowledge of local realities and they present options or solution which have minimum relevance for country.
Third, imported experts sell the dream of overnight turn around, which is impossible. These days fourth industrial revolution is on high demand. Everybody comes up with the idea of mechanization and digitalization of Pakistan. However, they do not know the prevailing realities and status of development of countries. On contrary Pakistan needs system which can create massive jobs. Fourth, the imported experts love to talk about CPEC, without having any knowledge, which creates problems. Lastly, most people we import are trained of liberal economic system, which is losing its charms, as it has introduced the in-equality and disparities among people.
Father of nation, Muhammad Ali Jinnah has pointed out this on July 1st, 1948 at the inauguration of State Bank of Pakistan. He was convinced that Western Economic system cannot fulfil the dream of equality and happiness. He even went to say that the WW-I and WW-II were results of in-equalities of Western Economic System. He urged State Bank to present a system which can ensure the prosperity and equality of human being.
Hence, Pakistan should change this practice and try to adopt vision of father of nation. Pakistan needs to look toward indigenous wisdom and develop its own system. Pakistan can learn this from the example of China, how to use local wisdom and resources to turn around the country.
Director, Asia Study Center SDPI