Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) riding the popularity of its charismatic leader Imran Khan came to power defeating well entrenched Pakistan Muslim League-N in Punjab and maintaining its government in KP and took a chunk from the MQM stronghold in Karachi .
The PTI has been in power in the center for the past now over 20 months and would be presenting its fourth budget in less than two years. PTI’s electoral victory against the PML-N in Punjab and the MQM in Karachi although is perceived by some political circles and opponents as a result of political engineering by the establishment, which is believed to be the final arbiters of state power in Pakistan’s electoral process. However, independent observers are of the view that Pakistani voters, especially the youth was attracted towards the slogan of tabdili (change), so eloquently raised and projected by Imran Khan with his powerful oratory and iconic status as a sports hero leading to the electoral victory in 2018 general elections. Imran Khan did appeal to the imagination of ambitious Pakistani youth, especially the urban, who wanted a Naya Pakistan where they could realize their unfulfilled dreams as well as new dreams articulated by Imran Khan in his well sustained over two years political campaign, which included sit-ins and several rallies and political meetings. Unlike sports where winning a match or tournament is an end by it self, in politics where a political party after winning elections is empowered with the mandate of millions of citizens, who trust the winning party with responsibility to take decisions on their behalf and lead them from the realm of dreams to actualizing the dreams, which include economic prosperity and equal opportunities, growth and development, social equality and safety of life and property. All this is achieved through formulation and implementation of sound policies. The leader has a pivotal role in the formulation and implementation of policies.
PTI’s rise to to power is attributed to Imran Khan s’ tenacity in his 22 years long political struggle summed up by his ex-wife Jamima Goldsmith in her tweet after PTI electoral victory: “22 years after humiliation, hurdles and sacrifices, my sons’ father is Pakistan’s next Prime Minister. It is an incredible lesson in tenacity, belief & refusal to accept defeat. The challenge now is to remember why he entered politics in the 1st place. Congratulations”. The Imran Khan phenomenon could not be better explained than the succinct tweet by Jamima Goldsmith, who loved, married, lived and unfortunately divorced Khan Sahib. Now, since he has been given the mandate by the people of Pakistan, he has an opportunity to realise the goals and dreams he saw for the people of Pakistan and for himself as a leader of establishing a true Islamic welfare state in Pakistan.
The majority of analysts agree that the people of Pakistan at large were really disappointed from corrupt and incompetent governments of the PPP and the PML-N; each one of which have governed or rather misgoverned for decades and could not deliver on their promises to take the country out of darkness of illiteracy and the vicious of cycle of poverty and under development.
The PTI from the first day of assuming the power was confronted with huge economic challenges and challenges of quality of governance in the country. In this otherwise economic doom and gloom, time tested friend China included Pakistan in its strategic Road and Belt Initiative, under which China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) holds a great promise for Pakistan’s economic and industrial revival. The PML-N government launched several CPEC related projects with fanfare, but regrettably the PTI government could not keep the momentum on the CPEC projects and the witch hunt in the name of fight against corruption reached Beijing which according to some reports sought clarifications from the PTI government about their commitment to the CPEC. However, the PTI was able to engage China on CPEC.
The leader has a pivotal role in the formulation and implementation of policies
Crises are always a challenge as well as an opportunity for a leader. The PTI government had to confront economic crisis, military standoff with India in Kashmir and coronavirus crisis. It may be premature to pass a judgement on the overall success or failure of the PTI, however, these pieces will reflect on PTI’s performance under PM Imran Khan.
Economic crisis
The PTI government from the first day was confronted with huge economic challenges – a current account deficit, mounting circular debit and dwindling foreign currency deposits.
PTI’s economic programme was based on three promises which included revival of economy by creating millions of jobs and building houses which will revive 40 construction related industries with multiplier effect on job creation. The Third plank of program was to fight corruption and prevent wastage of national economic resources by providing efficient and good governance.
Asad Umar was tipped as finance minister at least one year before the elections. He was believed to have mastered all the facts and figures about the economy of Pakistan and had a blueprint ready to be unfolded and implemented for economic revival of Pakistan and helping youth who voted for change to find abundance of jobs and businesses. Some critics think that the charismatic captain overrated his opening batsman or he did not understand the pitch on which he had to fight his first match of economic revival of the country. As a result, Asad Umar had to be shown the door and he took a backseat for a few months. He was brought back to look after the Ministry of Planning. Due to his affable communication skills Mr Asad also became Imran Khan s’ political firefighter to talk to the opposition and other stakeholders, whenever some crises surfaced on the chequered political landscape of Pakistan .
Asad Umar was replaced by veteran International banker Hafeez Sheikh, a tried and tested finance minister during two previous governments. He took over as adviser on finance and was assigned to fix the economic and financial machinery of the country. The State Bank governor was also replaced and the post was given to the IMF nominee who was heading IMFoperations in Egypt. The two key posts – the Finance Minister and the Governor of the State Bank – have been assigned to IFIs endorsed persons who no doubt have professional competence and experience, but they are apolitical professionals. Can they internalize PTI ideology and commitment to the policy prescription for undoing the decades old economic and social inequality prevalent in our country?
PM Imran ceded space to the all powerful IFIs and accepted conditions which adversely affected his core support group – middle and lower middle classes. As a result at the end of the year PTI government did not have much to cheer about in terms of economic revival, job creation, lowering inflation, increasing exports, bringing the deficit down and improving GDP growth. The economic indicators for the last 20 months have been rather disappointing, foreign direct investment decreased by 59% to US dollars 73.4 million in the year 2019 indicating a fall in the investor sentiments and confidence in the Pakistani market and its currency.
The writer is former Ambassador of Pakistan to Vietnam