Can Pakistan pursue its neutral policy notwithstanding of growing Sino-US divergence and competition?
Shifting paradigm of global power dynamics has created foreign policy challenges for Pakistan. The escalating tensions between the US and China have brought Pakistan at the strategic crossroads to make a strategic choice: the road to Beijing orWashington. However, Pakistan has traditionally maintained a “balanced approach” towards China and the US, the increasing geopolitical forces and escalating strategic tensions between the two will reduce the choices to one. It would be a nightmare for Pakistan to make a “new enemy” – that is even to be one of the global giants! Can Pakistan pursue its neutral policy notwithstanding of growing Sino-US divergence and competition?
Although pursuing a neutral policy for a geo-strategically important country is very challenging, there is a dire need to explore the “commonalities” that perhaps patch up the differences to maintain harmonious ties with both countries. It is optimistic that China has never sought US-Pak divorce to establish partnerships of complete monopoly. Rather, China has always encouraged Pakistan to build amicable relations with the US to promote regional stability. On contrary, Washington has branded Islamabad as the “strategic ally” of Beijing. Now the US policymakers look Pakistan through the prism of US-China strategic competition – that certainly erodes the decades old partnerships and engagements with Islamabad.
Recent shifting geopolitical sands and changing regional power equation will augment political stress not only for Pakistan but for the regional countries too. Growing US-India strategic cooperation is an indication that India has abandoned the policy of “strategic autonomy” and pursued the policy of strategic engagement and partnership under the Modi regime. India has been considered to be a “counterweight” to China, so Washington has negotiated the “Defence Deal 2020” with New Delhi to consolidate their defence ties. It will result in regional imbalance that compels the regional countries to go for alternative poles. Indeed, this attempt to redrawing regional power configuration certainly brings Islamabad at the strategic crossroads.
It is obvious that Islamabad is key actor that not only helps midwife the Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, but its cooperation is indispensable for a stable post-US Afghanistan order
In this evolving new regional security dynamics, the pragmatism of no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests has become practicable. When the US strategic drifts has become imminent, Pakistan not only has continued to maintain strong relations with China but it has also increased its engagement with Russia. In this complex struggle, the Pak-Russia relations redux and strong Pak-China ties would be a counterweight to Indo-US alliance, that would rebalance the imbalance. And the Pak-Russia relations redux from “estrangement to pragmatism” would be further accelerated through greater Sino-Russia engagement and increasing India’s strategic convergence with the US. It provides Pakistan “extended deterrence” notwithstanding Pakistan has already built nuclear and conventional deterrence in the region.
However, Pakistan and the US have maintained “torturous” – but cooperative – relations with each other that must not be completelyshut down. Since decades, Pakistan and the US have cooperated in different areas: defence, economics and regional stability. Pakistan’s help to the US to negotiate the deal with Afghan Taliban has created room for cooperation and engagement. It is obvious that Islamabad is key actor that not only helps midwife the Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, but its cooperation is indispensable for a stable post-US Afghanistan order. Besides, Washington has been the biggest export market of Islamabad. Both countries need to strengthen their commercial ties – the US policymakers appreciate economic ties with Pakistan and also show desire for greater economic engagement. Pakistan needs to add value to its products and increase its trade with the US. Moreover, Islamabad must convince Washington that it should not be seen through the lenses of China rather they have been traditional partners historically: the Baghdad pact, Cold War and the War on Terror partnerships are the gross evidences. In the future, likewise, both countries can also cooperate on mutual interests.
The writer is an analyst based in Islamabad