While the COVID crisis occupies most of government’s attention in Pakistan, people in Gilgit-Baltistan are looking forward to fresh elections. The incumbent Pakistan Muslim League (N) led government is about to complete its term. To settle some issues, the apex court in the country has also given a go-ahead to prepare and hold elections in the region. As the environment for political activity continues to form in Gilgit-Baltistan, India is suffering badly from its usual distress. On one hand, New Delhi is unable to loosen the tight curfew in the held valley, definitely due to fear of an unprecedented backlash in Kashmir, while on the other hand announcement of elections in Gilgit-Baltistan has stuck a spiny bone down India’s throat. Meanwhile, in RAW headquarters located in CGO complex, few desk officers could be seen cheering on incoming details of successful attacks by Baloch insurgents on our armed forces in Balochistan, while at the same time few middle-aged analysts are seen perturbed and frustrated unable to grasp deteriorating situation in Kashmir. Newspapers continue to show that how New Delhi is receiving decorated coffins draped in national flag from the occupied valley. The indigenous revolution by the “Davids of North” is bleeding a million soldier strong Goliath, with latitude. However, New Delhi is not stopping anywhere short of spreading a malicious narrative about Kashmir as well as Gilgit-Baltistan.
A formal order from Shastri Bhawan, where the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting is located, has recently asked all media channels to add Gilgit-Baltistan in their weather forecast reports. All India Radio from erstwhile airs programs for Gilgit-Baltistan. India is trying hard to confuse the international community. Whatsoever the case may be for Delhi, for people in Gilgit-Baltistan any gimmick played by Rajindar Khanna or his boss Ajit Doval remains a meaningless, futile, and frustrated attempt.
Since I belong to the region and the soil of Gilgit-Baltistan still nourishes my body, no one can speak better than me, about how we, the people of Gilgit-Baltistan feel. Indians have already got the taste of our mood while facing the brave jawans from Gilgit-Baltistan fighting in Northern light Infantry on the line of actual contact (LOAC) and Line of Control (LOC). That speaks enough how much the people of Gilgit-Baltistan feel about India. As locals of Gilgit Baltistan, we reckon that India is likely to make Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) elections an international issue and may initiate a well-funded propaganda. Although Indian agencies do not have an established network in Gilgit-Baltistan, but few Indian fed individuals settled abroad will be seen raising agitated voices in weeks to come. India may likely initiate diplomatic signaling with China, our main partner for CPEC. For Islamabad, this calls for a three-pronged pre-emptive response on the domestic, regional, and international level.
In Gilgit-Baltistan, street talk on interim government is simmering with sectarian undertones. Names of prominent retired government servants and social figures are being considered. Mainland political parties are also in the process of drafting a tailored manifesto, specific to Gilgit-Baltistan. Pakistan Muslim League (N) in Gilgit-Baltistan is fully geared up and rearranging the chess mate. The quantum of development work initiated during last few months, particularly in the constituency of Chief Minister Hafiz Hafeez Ur Rehman, has been unprecedented. As advised by close confederates of the ruling party, the provincial government is about to regularize around six thousand government contract employees. In elections, it is always the last mile that matters and seems these recent memory actions will appeal to the voter’s palettes.
Although PTI remains disorganized and divided between old loyalists and new the electables, yet for most people, the next government in Gilgit-Baltistan would be PTI led
There are voices which murmur in corner meetings that the present Chief Minister is doing the pre-poll rigging and trying to appease voters through false propaganda and disinformation campaigns properly managed by a media. Buzz also continues that Hafeez Ur Rehman is also trying to appear on mainstream and TV channels to portray his performance forward. While the Chief Minister is trying to grip the fluid political affairs, PML-N provincial leadership fears migrations of most of ‘electables’ (a Pakistani definition as this word does not exist in the English dictionary) from PML-N to Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) in coming days. Although PTI remains disorganized and divided between old loyalists and new the electables, yet for most people, the next government in Gilgit-Baltistan would be PTI led. As seen in mainland country, the ratio of tickets to aspiring candidates is way too high. Consensus on a single candidate for the award of ticket will be difficult and would require engagement and settlement before time. There is a strong perception that candidate with PTI ticket would most likely win the elections. Thus, the focus of politicians in GB is on obtaining PTI ticket for which many candidates are planning trips to Islamabad to pitch their case.
Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) leadership and party workers are lukewarm for the coming elections. However, prominent independents may carve out their share from upcoming PTI vote bank, particularly in Gilgit, Hunza, Nagar, Skardu and Ghizer districts. Dark horses like Majlis Wahdat Muslimeen (MWM) will also be in for the game to win a few seats from Baltistan.
Interim government in Gilgit-Baltistan has an important role in making a favourable environment and developing a fair playbook for elections. However, sectarian balance must be considered for the interim government. People who are acceptable to majority sects have visibly neutral appearance would be preferable. PTI needs to organize its party in GB. It is also evident that while every party would prefer to bag ‘electables’, yet migration of tagged PML-N politicians to PTI would be resisted by activist party workers. For people of Gilgit-Baltistan, they are waiting to see the menu of choices offered by each of the party in their manifesto. Let us see which party presents the most lucrative manifesto and can attract people towards its promises.
The writer is versatile analyst and speaker on contemporary issues