Global economy is always estimated on the parameters defined by the basic economic doctrines; however, the exception of coronavirus has transformed the world economic and social order. It might not affect the global political state of affairs, but coronavirus has definitely played havoc with the global economy. Trade ties will remain stressed internationally. Gross economic growth will be half as compared to the previous year statistics. Neo-imperial tendencies are inevitably going to entangle the calamity-stricken states once things settle down. In short, the pandemic will completely change the global economic outlook by the time it ends.
Trading across borders will remain tense in the current year. Although the US relations with the Afghan Taliban and other rivals have ostensibly thawed, that is not going to impact the overall world trade scenario. The entire world’s economy is facing a crisis due to the outbreak of the pandemic. It is useless to reiterate the alleged conspiracy theories. One thing is for sure: the whole world’s future has become highly vulnerable to even smallest of the mistakes.
The coronavirus has taken the world by the storm, changing the dynamics of global politics
Globalisation will be paced down; it is sometimes termed as “slowbalisation”. The report issued by the Global Economic Watch in the beginning of 2020 has been testified in the first three months of the year. The pandemic is just one of the cases that has caused an overall global lockdown. Apart from that, the killing of General Suleimani in Iran and tensions in the south China Sea have already slowed the pace of globalisation. Now, coronavirus has fuelled the fire beyond control. The European countries that were the hub of globalisation would no longer witness it because the virus has affected Europe badly. The Arabian and South American countries are less affected by the malady.
It is expected that the pace of globalisation will be slower in the European region than that of the rest of the world. Every state will try to be in less contact with the countries acutely affected by the virus. This will open up new economic avenues for the third world countries that survive the pandemic. However, the countries like Iran which could not limit the virus will be doomed. The already crippled economies will not be able to sustain the blow of both corona and poor economy at the same time. This can generate more lust for power in the great powers of the world. Once the pandemic ends, a world war sort of situation will be created where the survivors will vie for usurping the doomed states. In the 21st century, only the method will be changed: colonisation will be replaced by neo-colonisation. The dynamics of the battle of global dominance will remain the same.
Still, seven trillion record trades are anticipated to take place. The world cannot tolerate a lockdown for a long time. Things will start to be normal within a few months; the global economy that was previously estimated to have a growth rate of 3.2 percent will no longer progress at such a rapid pace. It is likely to be decreased by 40 percent. Tests of the proposed vaccines are being conducted at a rapid pace; it signalises a quick restoration of the previous global order.
The US, UK and Germany will remain the top three services exporters, but this year China is likely to take over France. Some economic experts believe that the Peoples’ Republic of China will be out of competition i.e., it will face a severe economic slump. There is little evidence to such assumptions. Although the economy of China has nosedived more than that of any country, it cannot be forgotten that the world economy and even the economy of the USA hinge on the economic stability of China. The economic recession of China is not going to be fatal for only China; it would also affect the USA and Europe.
The US economy will expand in this year at a greater pace than that of the Chinese economy. Despite the fact that China has fought the virus well, China is going into a national industrial shutdown. USA’s economic generation in this phase has seen fewer downfalls, and thus its economy is likely to grow. This growth is also important for Trump as the November elections are approaching; Trump cannot afford to give a shock of economic downfall to Americans. He has already been accused of poorly managing the coronavirus crisis. America claims to possess truly advanced technology, but it has failed to save its citizens from the pandemic.
The world order has certainly seen an abrupt shift. The phase of global hibernation will soon end as the remedy for the virus is being prepared. The prediction of the Global Economy Watch has been fulfilled while most of them seem to be invalid. The coronavirus has taken the world by the storm, changing the dynamics of global politics. It will be interesting to see how regional powers take charge of the affairs once the outbreak fades away, but one thing is certain: the global economic growth pace will be as slow as a snail this year.
The writer is a practicing lawyer and a political analyst