Europe always takes pride to claim as thought leader since the end of medieval time. The claim seems to be weak in prevailing situation. Europe is failing to adopt to change and devise strategy to combat future problems and securing their interests. The rivalry of emerging and existing power is making it difficult for Europe to make a choice. On one hand USA is pursuing Europe to distance itself from the China and curtail economic linkages. On other hand, China has deployed all its instruments to engage Europe. Europe has stuck between USA and China, emerging and existing powers. European Union has become the playing ground and division among countries started to become more apparent.
It is evident from the results of USA’s strategy to limit the diffusion of Huawei 5-G investments. USA is still not able to convince all European countries to ban Huawei from the market. UK has already allowed Huawei to invest in 5-G but at limited scale. European Union also lift it to members to decide on the future of investment on the basis of risks and opportunities. We will have to wait till June, to watch the possible future course of action.
Europe and European Union are also divided on Belt and Route Initiative. USA has asked many allies to not join BRI. However, some European countries have already joined the initiative, from members states of EU and non-member states. China has created a group with the name of Group 17+1. It includes both, the member and non-member states. China regularly engage with these countries and is increasing its investment in these countries. It is worrisome situation for USA and its allies in Europe.
Despite all the campaigns, EU has no option except to adopt the technology. The confusion is aggravating the situation and decision-making process of EU
European Union is trying to redefine the engagement and putting efforts to stop countries to join BRI. In 2019, EU declared China as systematic rival to achieve the objectives of limiting Chinese investment in Europe. It implies that now China will have to face challenges at multiple fronts. EU will look into how China’s model of governance and development can be countered. How to build a campaign or wall against China. EU will also look for options how to counter China at diplomatic front. It will introduce the furious competition between China and EU, which will impact both partners.
It is widely recognized that the reason of systematic rivalry is advancement of China in the fields of fourth industrial revolution. Hence, the real battle ground would be elements of “Fourth Industrial Revolution”. China had shown marvelous success in and has surpassed many countries in development of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, big data, and fifth generation of information technology like 5-G. The success story does not stop here, it also includes biotechnology, nanotechnology, robotics tec. The progress in these fields has really worried EU including other players. It is Great Leap from the factory of the world to the laboratory of world. Now China is gradually moving toward the hub of innovation.
However, the success in these fields is also the real reason of confusion. EU understand that without development or adaptation of modern tools, it would be extremely difficult to sustain its global status. These technologies are the future of world and economies would be dependent on them. But, at the same time EU is worried about, how to take lead in these areas and compete China. As China is way ahead in some fields like 5-G technology. Despite all the campaigns, EU has no option except to adopt the technology. The confusion is aggravating the situation and decision-making process of EU. On one hand some countries like France is asking for strict actions and unity of EU to deal with China. As President of France said “end of an era of European naivety toward China.
On other hand there are some countries like Germany, which wants a rational approach and deal with China as partner or competitor. Germany is putting a lot of efforts to bring EU and China close and work together. Germany enjoys a good history of relationship with China. German companies made huge profits from Chinese market and also invested in many modern technologies in China. Building on its experience, Germany wants to bring EU and China further close. Moreover, the attitude and dealing of President Trump also compel Germany and other countries to think before deciding anything.
Therefore, Germany has planned to organize a meeting between all heads of states of EU and President Xi Jinping in September 2020, at Leipzig city. The timing of meeting is very interesting, as it is only two months before, the USA election. It can create some problems for President Trump. Though, the prospects of meeting are undermined by the outbreak of COVID-19.
Unfortunately, COVID-19 has further confused the situation, as it has started to create division among the EU members. Italy was desperately looking for help from member states, but it could not get. Serbia was second on the list. The President of Serbia openly challenged the solidarity of EU and he praised China for its support. China also emerged as reliable partner, who help in need.
Hence, it is time for Europe to decide, where to go, and how to deal with existing and emerging powers. The confusion is not in the interest of any one including Europe, USA, China and world. Now it’s time for Europe to decide either it wants to live according to its reputation of “leader” or it will act as laggard. The second option would be very painful for Europe and world as well, especially for developing countries, as they always look toward Europe as thought leaders. Unfortunately, it seems now that the process of “leader to laggard” has been started and it needs to be stop here.
The writer is Director, Asia & China Study Center, SDPI