As a global superpower, the US has been maintaining and projecting its military and political supremacy for decades. The US has ensured its military presence all over the world through its technological prowess and an unrivalled number of military bases and naval fleets across the world.
Inspired by its military might, the US has deliberately opted for intervention strategies as is apparent in its ongoing campaigns in both Afghanistan and Iraq. However, despite its military prowess, Iran has, through its most recent actions, emerged as a considerable challenge to the US’s supremacy and role as a security guarantor in the Middle East. Unless the US has learned from its previous mistakes, it would likely embark on another disastrous intervention. Only this time, with a much better-prepared adversary and even more disastrous consequences.
The War in Afghanistan, which is considered the longest war in US history, seems to be going nowhere, despite the deployment of the world’s best-equipped military force. The same is the case with the US intervention in Iraq, where even after almost two decades the US has still not managed to fully withdraw its forces or call its campaigns a success. Subsequently, the US was compelled to reassess its strategy of military interventionism as the only prospect for ending this prolonged war even now through talks with the Taliban. Although the US has somehow managed to install a democratic setup in Iraq, the presence of ISIS, as well as the terrible security situation in Iraq raises several questions on the US credibility and efficacy throughout the entire Middle East.
Despite being widely regarded as a major impediment to US interests in the region, Iran was widely regarded as being no match for the capabilities and might of the US military. This perception, however, was turned on its head when Irani made missiles and UAV drones were discovered to have penetrated Saudi Air defences to strike, with unprecedented precision, at the heart of the Saudi Energy infrastructure. The purported damage to these facilities accounts for more than half of the Kingdom’s total output, amounting to about five per cent of the global oil supply or about 5.7 million barrels per day. Although Iran has denied any involvement in the attack, Irani-backed Houthi rebels have, however, openly claimed the responsibility.
Nevertheless, the overall impact was that such an attack was successful even though Saudi Arabia, being one of the world’s largest arms importers, is a major buyer of advanced weaponry from the US. These include state-of-the-art fighter jets and sophisticated air defence systems. For instance, even though the said oil facilities were under the defence shield of the US Patriot surface-to-air system (PAC-2), one of the most advanced systems in the world, it failed to deter and defend against these reportedly cruise missile and drone attacks. The lapse was such that even the US Secretary of State, Michael Pompeo, had to justify it by admitting some of the finest air defence systems do fail sometimes. Against the backdrop of this episode, it seems like Iran has positioned itself in a much better position over the US-backed Saudi challenge in the Middle East.
The War in Afghanistan seems to be going nowhere, despite the deployment of the world’s
best-equipped military force
The US’s withdrawal from the JCPOA; Iran’s harassment of western oil tankers and the most recent controversy over the US drone, purportedly shot down by Iran in June this year, have continually heightened US-Iran tensions. In all, these instances have also led to the growing possibility of the US taking on Iran militarily, as a direct consequence of its more interventionist policy. This is also evident from the US’s excessive naval presence in the Persian Gulf aimed at pressurising Iran. Consequently, Iran, which has allegedly carried out a covert nuclear program, has been working on growing its missile arsenals and involved in the potential acquisition of precision strike systems. The build-up of an asymmetric naval-air-missile threat to shipping in the Gulf and nearby waters in the Gulf of Oman is an example of Iran’s expanding military muscle. All these trends show that Iran is belligerently expanding its role in the Middle East region while directly challenging US supremacy both militarily and politically.
Hence, while the recent wave of challenges that the US has been facing in Afghanistan and the Middle East continues to undermine its credibility as a security guarantor in these regions, Iran has dramatically and quite visibly taken that challenge up a notch.
The cancellation of the US-Taliban peace talks, the enhanced tensions with Iran over the nuclear issue and the recent standoff between Iran and the US-backed Saudi Arabia over the Yemen issue all serve as major challenges for its ability to play a decisive role in the region. At present, the US is facing a dilemma, either to shamefully withdraw from these regions or to plunge headfirst in another destructive intervention. Consequently, the US might need to seriously rethink and revisit its strategy of military intervention against every considerable problem in these regions. Moreover, it may need to completely revamp its concepts of why, when and how to wage a war overseas. This is because, at the present, the confidence, which the US once inspired in its role as the sole global superpower capable of unilaterally solving security issues anywhere in the world, has severely diminished.
The writer is working as a research associate at Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) Islamabad, Pakistan