The peace talks are now entering an important phase in Afghanistan, as the US and Taliban are close to finalising the peace deal, ending the 18-years-old war. As the members of the negotiating team, the representative of Taliban in Doha told the press that “Peace agreement is near,” without providing the further details.
The Taliban were overthrown by the US-led military in Afghanistan after the devastating attack on the World Trade Center on September 11, 2001. About 17,000 troops of NATO and its allies and as many as 14,000 troops of the US remain in Afghanistan.
According to the UN-released report on the Afghan war in 2018, the highest number of civilians have been killed in Afghanistan’s war. The intense fighting continues in Afghanistan, despite the peace process. Besides, the Taliban have also said on several occasions that there will be no ceasefire until the US-led military troops are withdrawn from their land. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) indicated in the report that 59 districts, which is approximately 14.5 per cent, of Afghanistan are under the control of Taliban while as many as 229 districts, approximately 56.3 per cent of the total Afghan districts are under the government. 119 districts, which are approximately 22.9 per cent, are neither controlled by Taliban nor the government.
Analysts now believe peace is possible ever since the US and Taliban talks began in 2018. The Taliban previously refused to talk with the Afghan government, which has repeatedly invited the former to the peace talks with no success. Yet, in July, dozens of Afghan politicians, including women, met the Taliban in Doha for a two-days Intra-Afghan dialogue.
200 civil-society representatives and Afghan politicians were going to meet the Taliban in Doha. However, the Taliban opposed the delegation and said: “It’s not a wedding party.”
The negotiations between the Taliban and the US seem to be focused on four points until now. The demands including the foreign forces withdrawal, counter-terrorism assurances, intra-Afghan dialogue, and a comprehensive ceasefire. The Taliban demanded the US-led military forces withdraw from Afghanistan. Both sides are trying to ensure a permanent ceasefire. Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special representative for Afghanistan, announced after the eighth round table negotiations that the talk focused on the technical detail of the agreement. He said, “We know that the Afghan people yearn for peace we stand with Afghan people; we are working hard to make this dialogue successful.”
The peace process will collapse if there is a lack of consensus in Kabul
It is indicated that the peace process will collapse if there is a lack of consensus in Kabul. The failure of the Afghan government to agree on an exclusive team to negotiate with the Taliban is a major challenge to the peace talks. During the Karzai tenure, the Afghan government tried reconciling with the Taliban, but the peace process was failing. After so many failed talks, the Afghan government, with the help of the US, has started the peace talks again.
Afghanistan neighbours Pakistan, India and China. Russia played a role in facilitating a peace process. Pakistan is also committed to facilitating the peace process. In the recent meeting with Trump, Prime Minister Imran Khan said that stability in Afghanistan was equally important for Pakistan as Pakistan shared its borders with Afghanistan and Afghanistan was strategically an important country for the prosperous region. India has also not been excluded from the peace process in Afghanistan as both countries pledged support to the peace process. During the trilateral meeting of Russia, China and the US in Moscow, three sides agreed on Afghanistan territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty and supported the peace process.
For four decades, Afghanistan has been fighting with the rival group for its peace and stability. If supposedly, the peace dialogues are successful and the US and Taliban reach an agreement successfully, it would only end the US military’s involvement in Afghanistan; not conflict in the country at large. Many analysts fear that Afghanistan will remain a hub of instability, where the citizens continue to fear attacks. Trump said that if they reached a peace deal, there would still be the US presence in Afghanistan. In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump said, “We will have a permanent presence in Afghanistan.”
The US public is taking more interest in the peace news as they are more pessimistic about the War in Afghanistan. A PEW research centre found in 2018 that the public believed that in the 18 years of war, the country failed to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan. It is expected that the peace talks will bring peace and stability in Afghanistan.
As the elections are expected to be held in the next month in Afghanistan, people believe Ashraf Ghani would be reelected, especially now when a strong candidate, Hanif Atmar, has dropped out of the race. Many Afghans are disappointed by Ghani’s leadership. However, if the results were contested in the presidential elections, as in the last two elections held in Afghanistan, an interim government would have to be formed, including the Taliban. That’s why, a credible election is needed this time to “save the Afghan republic and to save the peace.”
The writer is a freelance and researcher