Geopolitical signaling and symbolism gain significance when the world is in transition. The signaling is translated into concrete steps when states observe the signs of consolidation in ailing order or the establishment of the new one. This environment demands swift power calculations by state actors by rising above the impractical ideological transnationalism. Geopolitics transcends ideology and pragmatism replaces rhetoric; failing to anticipate the dynamism leaves nothing behind but, reactive adjustments.
The ties between, as it is being cited, secular India, modernizing Saudi Arabia and tolerant UAE, where Arab monarchies appear to promise Modi gain his vision of 5 Trillion dollar Indian economy, is not expression of mere bilateralism; rather a reflection of emergent strategic alignments, in line with the volatile global order. India is the new entrant into the conflict-ridden, however, resource-rich Middle East – a ‘Cauldron of Discontent’, which is already well-penetrated by extra-regional powers. Historically, ME region was dominated by the US with authoritarian Arab regimes aboard; however, Arab Spring and subsequent Russo-Iranian intrusions in the presence of Chinese investments in ME and North Africa, fractured the American grip over the region – leading to the multipolar region highlighting US and its allies’ limitations. Given this, Indian entry, as stabilizing act, could have not been possible without US consent.
Because of its region’s religious, geographic, territorial, and militant attractions, ME has always been a security question with reference to containment, deterrence, political violence, and counterterrorism invoking arm race, nuclear pursuits, and balance of power thinking among regional and extra-regional actors.
Pakistan needs to understand that ideological transactionalism is dead now; therefore, prudent pragmatism is the need of the hour. Multilateralism should be the approach for foreign relations; and at domestic fronts, state must fix the extremist phenomenon by balancing security and human rights at home
At the global level, USA pursues a containment strategy against rising China – a formidable challenge to the US primacy. This strategy is rising in scope and intensity, from technology, trade, controlling energy routes, to ally-seeking in different parts of the world.
Regions are dealt in line with global geopolitical imperatives. In ME, US is no more interested in balancing between human rights [democracy promotion] and security, fearing it would bring anti-US ‘villains’ into power. Perhaps therefore, US wants to keep her own villains – ME autocrats, in place and further her geopolitical considerations – containment of tempting China, incursive Russia, ambitious Iran, and neo-ottoman Turkey.
India, under a religio-nationalist Modi, after expanding her outreach in Indo-Pacific region, seems to be making inroads into Middle East. This is reflected in India’s foreign relation that has undergone immense transformation from aspirations to actions, from East to the West. Modi not only turned Nehruvian ‘Look East’ policy into a more productive ‘Act East’, but also initiated a ‘Look west’ policy as well, extending Indian influence from South East Asian region to the West Asia.
The West Asia Shift in Indian foreign policy, and warm welcome accorded by the Arab leaders to Modi, have serious repercussions for Beijing, Tehran, and Islamabad.
After failing to make a mark in Afghan peace process, India was not happy and rather resisted US ‘maximum pressure’ policy against Iran. By assigning a role to India in Middle East, US has played a master stroke. It has deprived Iran from a worthy trade partner and shifted India’s energy reliance from Iran to the ME to the benefit of Sunni Arabs and US itself. US accepted little sway of Pakistan in Afghanistan and compensated India in ME at the expense of Pakistan, where the latter has historically enjoyed influence and cult.
India, an energy competitor and an instrument of US containment policy against China, can pose a serious threat to Chinese energy supplies coming from ME and North Africa. Indian influence in Middle East will to be zero-sum, as it aims to undermine Chinese influence by depriving it from market and investments. Of course, China can now eat Central Asian energy resources, as India, perhaps now, will not be able to balance her relations with Sunni Arabs and Shia Iran, and therefore, Chabahar port and Afghan transit will lose attraction for India.
What is the incentive for Arab autocracies in the changing balance of power politics? They, being astute, are distancing themselves away from Islamist impulses, acting as US proxies in alliance with Israel and India against American and their own rivals; and getting security protection with guarantees for uninterrupted family rule in return.
How does Pakistan view the changing scenario? Pakistan, certainly, not happy over the growing Indian ties with Muslim Arabs. It needs Arab countries’ support for financial stability and foreign relations. In fact, Pakistan in recent past, was accustomed to view the region through ideological – Shia Sunni lens and failed to figure out Middle East’s Indo-Pak dimension. Therefore, it is safe to believe that Pakistan’s relationship with Arabs was primarily security centric. For example, in 2015, Arabs asked Pakistan for military support in their Yemeni campaign against ‘Iran’: and recently Saudi Arabia promised to invest 20 billion USD in Pakistan, that too primarily, to dissuade Pakistan from Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. In both cases, Pakistan did not live up to the Saudi expectations. Especially, recently when MBS along with Gared Kushner was making a case for US attack on Iran; Imran Khan, while in US, warned Americans and advised President Trump not to do so. Imran’ act did no go well enraging Saudi Arabia and UAE second time. First instance was, when Pakistan turned down Saudi request for troops that earned displeasure of the Kingdom and UAE state minister for foreign affairs Anwar Garhash warned ‘Pakistan of having to pay heavy price’.
Pakistan needs to understand that ideological transactionalism is dead now; therefore, prudent pragmatism is the need of the hour. Multilateralism should be the approach for foreign relations; and at domestic fronts, state must fix the extremist phenomenon by balancing security and human rights at home.
Conclusively, Indian inroads into Middle East is a balancing act by US against confident China and emboldened Iran with serious repercussions for Pakistan as well. Apparently, it is transactional relationship; however, it is backed by geopolitical compulsions, as Middle East is part of larger Eurasia and route of inspirational Belt Road Initiative of China under its ‘West March’ strategy. China have to show some teeth at global, regional, and institutional levels, because restraint and abstentions will not work anymore.
The writer is PhD (IR) Candidate at National Defence University, Islamabad, Pakistan. Research Fellow at the University of Maryland, USA