The year 2016 had brought about two remarkable events in international affairs. The first event was the Exit of Britain from the EU. David Cameron wanted to get concessions from the EU and be remembered as a modern era Margaret Thatcher, but instead bungled it spectacularly and now will go down in history as the modern era Anthony Eden.
The second one is the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of America. Trump portrayed himself as an anti-establishment figure and while the American people did buy into that, how that works out for them remains to be seen. But what is certain is that the election of Donald Trump will have repercussions for Pakistan. As a keen observer of current affairs, I have come to the conclusion that compared to a Hillary Clinton presidency; the Trump presidency might actually be much more beneficial, or at least benign, for Pakistan.
To put things into perspective, the Pak-US relationship had been on a steady downward trajectory throughout the Obama presidency. Whatever the reasons may be, it is clear that with the new American strategy of surrounding China with powerful hostile neighbors, India has gained a central role in American policy, and Pak-American relations have been progressively downgraded. Hillary Clinton would’ve continued the policies of Obama and here Trump might just diverge from this path, providing Pakistan a modicum of relief.
Trump is different in that he has won on the promise of “making America great again”. His proposals for domestic development require a lot of resources, which are not available in the deficit budget of America and which might force a review of the hundreds of billions of dollars spent in Afghanistan. Considering the ineptness of the Afghan government, America has gotten zero returns there and now will have to either ramp up its military support again or engage Pakistan to conduct conclusive negotiations.
This is all the more important as Trump has focused on the threat of ISIS. He has mentioned defeating Radical Islam in his inauguration speech and has spoken about working with Russia to resolve the conflict in the Middle East. Although the American establishment has reacted violently to the prospect of a rapprochement with Russia by creating a hacking scandal and expelling diplomats, Trump can still collaborate with Putin to drive ISIS out of Syria. An achievement of this type is desperately needed by Trump to help him counter his abysmal approval ratings and his conflict with the establishment.
However, regardless of how things go, friction between the President and their Establishment will continue to hobble America from making any serious foray in international diplomacy. That bodes well for Pakistan because, considering India’s recent belligerence, there was a chance of confrontation in South Asia and America would’ve come down on India’s side. Now that the American establishment is targeting its own President, it will make a lame duck ally for the Indians. Even if Trump manages to subdue his internal foes, there is considerable divergence of goals between Donald Trump and India. The most significant problem is the fact that Trump wants to restrict immigration and Indians have been its biggest beneficiary. In fact, this is such a big issue that NarendraModi’s aggressive demand for additional immigration rights torpedoed Theresa May’s first foreign visit and hopes for a trade deal after BREXIT.
The importance of India has also been reduced as Trump has in effect disavowed from the Obama strategy of “pivot to Asia”. This is signified by the scuttling of the TPP, which was meant to unite China’s opponents in Asia with the USA. It is true that Trump has often attacked China in his speeches for economic manipulation, but there has been little emphasis on any military confrontation. Thus Donald Trump has been making a concerted effort to redirect the American state’s focus on internal development. In this regard, his nomination of Rex Tillerson is an effort to retain control of his foreign policy by choosing an outsider. The Establishment can still create hurdles for Donald Trump, but it cannot deny him the presidency as that will effectively mark the end of the American democracy. The Republican Party also needs to work with Trump because Congress elections will be coming up in two years, and if they are unable to deliver anything in spite of maintaining control of both houses, they can virtually confirm their loss right here.
Some of the picks for the cabinet secretaries have also provided hints for the security policy, which can be described as positive for Pakistan. General Michael Flynn, nominated as the NSA, has acknowledged Pakistan’s legitimate national interests and has spoken about the need to build up the Pak-US relationship in depth and breadth. The defense secretary, General James Mattis, has spoken about incentivizing Pakistan’s cooperation in Afghanistan. Even some of the ranking Republicans such as Senator John McCain have maintained strong ties with Pakistan. Thus it can be seen that there might be a level of support for Pakistan in the new administration.
Although the prospects for Pakistan look slightly better when compared to a Hillary Clinton presidency, the Pakistani state is under no delusions that the Pak-US relations will get back to the bonhomie of yesteryears. The USA has aligned itself with the Northern Alliance based government of Afghanistan, which is incompetent and unacceptable to Pakistan. It has also tilted markedly towards India. The Pakistani state has already gathered alternate options and looks quite secure. It is working very hard to build up the CPEC, which will jumpstart its economy and finally make Pakistan self-sufficient.
America will still carry weight in the region due to its sheer economic and military power, but what role it plays depends on its leadership. With the election of Donald Trump and turmoil in the USA, Pakistan’s most pressing concern, the Indo-US alliance, has been somewhat mitigated. That should allow Pakistan some space to build itself up for future regional challenges, where it will be much less vulnerable.
The writer is freelance journalist, can be contacted at [email protected]