Though Pakistan and Russia are opening up to each other, both states have competing and divergent interests. Russia’s engagement with Pakistan is intended at eliminating Islamic State (IS) in the region. Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has accused the United States of ignoring the rise of IS in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s interest in Russia stems from her search for an alternative alliance after ties with US got severed.
Perhaps, Pakistan is repeating the same mistake. Russia understands this difference, and they are curious and slow in judging Pakistan’s interests.
Pakistan’s foreign policy lacks coherent framework and suffers from short-sightedness.
After being betrayed by US, Pakistan has now turned to Russia, but times have changed and Russians are cautious of new dynamics and intentions behind Pakistan’s recent interests.
Pakistan must be aware that the leadership in Russia has not abandoned its Cold War mentality, and accepting Pakistan as an ally will be judged and decided through the same prism.
By opening up to Russia, Pakistan only sells itself in just security framework. We must work on full spectrum connectivity with Russia and others as well so that we are not blamed after their security needs are over. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told President Vladimir Putin in Ufa at the SCO summit that Pakistan wanted a multidimensional relationship with Russia. This multifaceted relationship can only improve if it is from traditions to technology, from culture to commerce, from investment to information technology, from service to strategy and from people to politics. Russia-Pakistan rapprochement will not be successful until both establish a relationship on above-mentioned streams.
Russia-Pakistan rapprochement will not be successful until both establish a multifaceted relationship
Pakistan understands the need to engage with China on CPEC and having a North-South gas pipeline from Russia which is to complete in 2020 in three phases. Russia will invest about $2 billion in the 1100-km long pipeline. The world is moving from the US-led western globalisation to a Chinese-led silk road globalisation. Russia and Pakistan are stakeholders in One Belt and One Road through the Eurasian land bridge and the CPEC respectively. China is working on creating new marketplaces through OBOR.
China believes in shared destiny, and that can only be achieved through access to markets and contributing to stability and prosperity of neighbouring powers. Pakistan faces the challenge of countering extremism and terrorism and both Russia and China can help us in engaging our youth in economic projects and giving an environment where people can develop their businesses.
Russia opened an Honorary Consulate in Peshawar recently with an aim to boost trade. The bilateral trade between Pakistan and Russia is about $500 million. Many also believe having Honorary Consulate in Peshawar means Russia also wants to enhance its footprints in KP to monitor the IS presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan border region.
Pakistan’s rapprochement with Russia is being seen in India as an anti-India move. India is opening up to the US, Australia and Japan and they are thinking to have free and open Indo-Pacific Strategy including high-quality infrastructure. It is being considered as a joint regional infrastructure plan to counter China’s multibillion-dollar OBOR. India is going in the western block while ignoring its non-aligned status and Russia is uncomfortable with this. That is why Russians are calling Pakistan as a reliable partner in South Asia.
Pakistan’s cosying up with Russia is being taken in Washington as a poke in the eye. Billions of dollars lost in the Afghan war have not brought any success to the US. Seventeen long years in Afghanistan and still more than 40 percent of the territory is in the hands of Taliban. Looking at the behaviour of the US since Trump administration took charge and the August 21 speech of Donald Trump regarding its South Asia policy, Pak-US relations are hanging by a single thread which could free fall anytime. The United States understands that with this tough approach on Pakistan, it may go out of the US’ influence.
Russia has given signals that it will support Pakistan in acquiring membership in the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), which Pakistan considers very significant for acceptance of its nuclear programme.
On the other hand, the US asked Pakistan to take stewardship of its nuclear arsenals. Pakistan took this very seriously, and its National Command Authority (NCA) had a meeting the very next day and responded Washington with full force that our nuclear assets are in safe hands. Pakistan will maintain Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) for maintaining strategic stability in the region. The US has recently banned seven Pakistani companies which are engaged in nuclear trade.
This will harm Pakistan’s ambitions for joining the NSG. Hence Pakistan desires Russian support in the nuclear field as well. Meanwhile, Pakistan must engage with the US and should not give the impression that it wants to cut off ties. Pakistan will have to be careful and keep its card close to the chest in developing regional order.
The writer is a Strategic and Political analyst. He teaches international politics in NUML Islamabad
Published in Daily Times, April 5th 2018.