Maritime Pakistan has placed it at a crossroad of some of the most important sea lines of communication in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Opportunity and vulnerability exist here. Pakistan’s defence posture has been compelled to shift away from old systems amid growing strategic competition, technological disruption, and hybrid maritime threats. This modification is manifested in the induction of the HANGOR-class submarines. Not simply a platform of platforms, but an active support of a policy of sea denial and of plausible minimum deterrence.
Submarines have been used as an instrument of asymmetric advantage. Since the earliest naval trials, they have enabled states to compensate for traditional asymmetries with stealth and survivability. This reasoning was realised by the Pakistan Navy. Starting with the leasing of a submarine in the 1960s by the United States and then purchasing the Daphne and Agosta classes, Pakistan gradually constructed a submarine capability focused on deterrence over projection. The HANGOR-class programme is the follow-up of this development.
The HANGOR-class submarines represent a non-verbal but mighty shift in Pakistan’s naval position.
The programme is designed in partnership with China as part of a 2015 agreement with China Shipbuilding and Offshore International Company Ltd and consists of eight advanced submarines. Four are under construction at Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works and the rest are built in China. There is more to procurement than this arrangement. It is an indication of a progressive transition to home industrial potential via technology transfer, which is necessary for sustainability over time and strategic independence.
The most effective purpose of the HANGOR-class is the strengthening of the Anti-Access and Area Denial system (A2/AD) of Pakistan. In contrast to sea control strategies that are based on visible dominance, sea denial aims at making the operating environment unknown and expensive to an adversary. Contemporary Air Independent Propulsion Navy subs have the capability to stay submerged longer, limiting their detection and causing more operational uncertainty. This makes them force multipliers that make enemy planning difficult and limit their freedom of manoeuvre.
HANGOR-class strategic importance is further made clear by the concept of deterrence. The doctrine of Pakistan is based on credible minimum deterrence, which is dependent on survivability. Survivability is offered by sea-based assets. With a submarine lurking in the Arabian Sea, there is strategic uncertainty that is hard to overcome.
It is also important to note the contribution of these submarines to the dynamics of the crisis. Under-sea capabilities help in restraint in a region where there are intermittent heightening especially between nuclear-equipped nations. The fact that there is an unnoticed submarine poses unpredictability and prompts the element of caution. It turns the scales of offensive intention to defensiveness. This is not in theory. Even a single submarine, as history has demonstrated, can influence the operational behaviour and decelerate the escalation, by placing psychological and tactical restrictions.
The HANGOR-class is also used in the general maritime security role of Pakistan as well. The security of energy routes, the security of sea lines and protection against non-state threats must be constantly monitored and responded to in time. The submarines present a special benefit in this field. Their capability to operate in stealth allows them to gather intelligence and monitor enemy movement and help in mobilised efforts with ground and air troops. Such capability enhances the contribution of Pakistan towards maritime security in the region within multinational systems such as combined task forces.
An industrial perspective of the programme may not be ignored. The KS and EW development is a step towards being self-reliant in the manufacture of naval. Transfer of technology is not restricted to the building of submarines. It involves acquiring experience in design, maintenance and systems integration. It may also result in decreasing the dependence on external suppliers in the long run and improving the ability of Pakistan to sustain and modernise the fleet.
However, platforms are not the elements of capability. The effectiveness of the HANGOR-class will be ascertained by how it can be integrated into a bigger operation network. Modern naval war is increasingly becoming a multi-domain war. Subs must operate in concert with the maritime patrol planes and satellites, cyber, and surface fleets. They have to make the most of their presence by means of network-centric operations and real-time data sharing. This integration is crucial to even the more developed platforms’ potential.
The HANGOR-class is not aimed at projecting power to a distance beyond the maritime frontiers of Pakistan in the strategic sense. It is less idealistic and ideal. It seeks to deny aggressors space, raise the cost of aggression and ensure that aggression against the maritime interests of Pakistan is not infringed. This policy aligns with a defensive philosophy, which places a premium on stability, as opposed to expansion, and deterrence, as opposed to confrontation.
Undersea deterrence will also gain importance as the IOR is turning out to be a more controversial region. The HANGOR-class submarines represent a non-verbal but mighty shift in Pakistan’s naval position. They are not visible embodiments of power, but it is their invisibility that renders the impact. Tacit, survivable, and in strategic placement, they form a highly significant deterrence layer, which increases stability within an uncertain regional environment.
The writer is a Research Associate at the Maritime Centre of Excellence.