El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season in South Asia, raising concerns over rainfall patterns and rising temperatures. Meteorological experts warn the phenomenon could significantly affect seasonal weather across the region. The development may also influence agriculture and water availability.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department Pakistan Meteorological Department said climate models show a strong likelihood of El Niño formation. The condition is expected to emerge during the June to September monsoon period. Officials noted that higher-than-normal temperatures are also anticipated across most of South Asia.
Read more: Super El Nino threat raises flood fears across Pakistan
Moreover, El Niño is a natural climate pattern that warms Pacific Ocean surface waters and disrupts global weather systems. It typically weakens monsoon rainfall in the Indian subcontinent. Previous El Niño events contributed to record global temperatures in recent years.
Additionally, forecasts suggest below-normal rainfall across much of South Asia during the 2026 monsoon season. Some regions, however, may still receive normal or above-normal precipitation. Experts also expect a possible shift toward a positive Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season.
Read more: Subcontinent might see subdued monsoon this year: expert
Furthermore, climate authorities caution that seasonal predictions carry uncertainty due to changing global conditions. The outlook was finalised at a regional climate forum involving meteorological agencies from across Asia. Officials continue to monitor evolving ocean and atmospheric patterns ahead of the monsoon.