Citrus stands as one of Pakistan’s most economically significant and strategically vital fruit industries. As reported by the Ministry of National Food Security & Research, national citrus production reached approximately 2.3 million tonnes in 2023-24, positioning it as the country’s leading fruit crop in terms of total output. Commercial citrus production in Pakistan is largely concentrated in Punjab, where the ‘Kinnow’ mandarin serves as the country’s primary export variety. The Sargodha belt remains the core hub for citrus cultivation, as well as for processing and export operations. While Pakistan cultivates a range of citrus fruits, including sweet oranges, grapefruit, lemons, and limes, the Kinnow mandarin remains the dominant variety in the commercial mandarin segment and plays a central role in driving the country’s citrus export performance. The citrus sector also holds considerable untapped potential in value-added processing products, including juices, marmalades, jams, jellies, purees, peel-derived goods, and essential oils. As a result, Pakistan continues to rely predominantly on the export of fresh citrus fruit, particularly the ‘Kinnow’ mandarin. At the same time, the sector faces a range of persistent challenges, including disease incidence, climate-related stresses, suboptimal production practices, uneven fruit maturity at harvest, inadequate grading systems, and inconsistent packaging standards. These shortcomings are progressively altering Pakistan’s position, even within its long-established export markets. Current trends in key international destinations underscore a crucial insight: gaining market access does not necessarily translate into sustained success.
Pakistan must shift from a price-driven to a quality- and reliability-driven export strategy
Indonesia is both a major citrus producer and importer, with China dominating its mandarin imports, followed by Australia and Pakistan. Although Pakistan ranks as the third-largest supplier, its Kinnow consistently sells at lower prices-reflecting underlying quality constraints rather than market conditions alone. Export performance to Indonesia remains volatile, suggesting that quality, reliability, and buyer confidence are the main limitations, rather than market access. Over the past two years (2023 and 2024), Pakistani Kinnow has consistently realized lower average prices in the Indonesian market than both Chinese and Australian mandarins. In 2024, the average CIF (cost, insurance, and freight) price of Pakistan’s Kinnow was approximately 32% lower than that of Australian mandarins and about 10% below Chinese mandarins. The trend observed in the previous year closely mirrored that of 2024, reinforcing Pakistan’s position as a significant yet distinctly third-tier, lower price-realizing supplier in Indonesia’s mandarin market. This persistent price differential reflects more than mere market dynamics; it points to underlying and recurring quality constraints that continue to limit Pakistan’s ability to secure higher-value returns in the Indonesian market. The citrus trade between Pakistan and Indonesia is both highly competitive and commercially volatile. Data from the Ministry of National Food Security & Research indicate that Indonesia ranked as the fifth-largest export market for Pakistani mandarins in both 2022-23 and 2023-24.
A 2026 field visit to Jakarta by a team from Pakistan and Australia under the ACIAR-funded Citrus Value Chain Project (HORT/2020/129) revealed that Pakistani Kinnow is largely confined to lower-end retail segments and is purchased mainly due to its low price. Consumer preferences strongly favour sweetness, low acidity, firmness, and clean appearance. While Kinnow has good sugar content, its higher acidity results in a less favourable taste compared to competitors such as Chinese Wogan and local Medan mandarins. Consumers indicated a willingness to pay significantly more for consistently sweet fruit. Postharvest handling and packaging were identified as major weaknesses. Significant proportions of Kinnow shipments suffer deformation and damage due to poor packing and inadequate temperature control during transit. In contrast, Chinese mandarins benefit from better packaging, consistency, and branding, allowing them to dominate the market. Medan mandarins compete strongly on taste and freshness. Currently, Pakistan competes primarily on price-a strategy that is unsustainable. While the country has strengths in production scale and market access, its weaknesses in quality consistency, packaging, and supply reliability limit its ability to capture higher-value segments. However, opportunities remain strong, as Indonesian consumers are willing to pay premiums for better quality fruit.
The way forward is clear: Pakistan must shift from a price-driven to a quality- and reliability-driven export strategy. This requires improvements across the entire value chain, including better maturity management, reduced acidity, stricter grading, improved packaging, and effective cold chain control. Consistent quality and dependable supply are essential to building long-term trust with importers. The key lesson from Jakarta is that market access alone is not enough. Sustainable success depends on delivering consistent sweetness, quality, and reliability. Without this shift, Pakistan will remain in the low-price segment while competitors capture premium market opportunities. The key takeaway for growers, exporters, and policymakers is that the future of Kinnow in Indonesia will hinge on consistent eating quality, improved presentation, reliable compliance, and more disciplined market engagement. By consistently meeting these standards, Pakistan can move beyond the budget segment and secure higher returns in one of Asia’s most significant mandarin markets. Conversely, persisting with a low-price strategy and taking a passive approach will keep Pakistan in the lower tiers, while competitors secure the premium segment.
Dr. Raheel Anwar and Dr. Muhammad Ahsan Qureshi are affiliated with the University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Pakistan, and Dr. Tim Sun is affiliated with University of Queensland, Australia. They can be contacted at [email protected] and [email protected].