The final nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia is set to expire within hours, raising serious fears of a renewed global arms race. Unless both sides reach a last-minute agreement, the two largest nuclear powers will face no legal limits on their arsenals for the first time in more than fifty years.
For decades, arms control agreements created after the Cuban Missile Crisis helped reduce the risk of a catastrophic nuclear conflict. However, with the expiry of the New START treaty, those safeguards may disappear, leaving both nations free to expand their deployed warheads and delivery systems without restrictions.
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Experts warn that without this treaty, Washington and Moscow could add hundreds of new nuclear warheads to existing missiles and bombers. In a worst-case scenario, both sides could nearly double their current deployed stockpiles, increasing global tensions and undermining strategic stability.
Meanwhile, China is expected to play a growing role in this new nuclear environment, as its arsenal has more than doubled over the past decade. Although global warhead numbers fell to around 12,000 in 2025 from Cold War levels, major powers are now modernizing and upgrading their weapons.
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At the same time, political signals remain mixed, as U.S. President Donald Trump has said he wants a better agreement and hopes to involve China in future talks. However, Russian officials claim Washington has not formally responded to President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to extend the treaty’s limits.
Overall, the end of New START marks a turning point for global security, as trust, transparency, and verification mechanisms begin to fade. If diplomacy fails, the world may enter a dangerous new nuclear age defined by competition instead of cooperation.