KARACHI, July 30, 2025 — The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to announce its first monetary policy for the fiscal year 2025-26 later today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by the SBP Governor, will meet to assess current economic conditions, inflation trends, and financial market developments before making a decision on the key policy interest rate, which is currently at 11%.
The SBP has already published its monetary policy calendar for the fiscal year, outlining a total of eight policy announcements. Today’s announcement will be followed by the next ones on September 15, October 27, and December 15 this year. Four more policy reviews are planned for January 26, March 9, April 27, and June 15, 2026.
The central bank’s interest rate decisions play a critical role in managing inflation, controlling liquidity, and guiding investment sentiment. The MPC’s decision is expected to reflect its latest assessment of the consumer price index (CPI), exchange rate stability, and economic growth outlook.
In its last announcement in June 2025, the SBP maintained the policy rate at 11%, after making a 100 basis point cut in May, which brought it down from 12%. This followed earlier rate cuts in January and April, part of a cautious easing cycle amid slowing inflation.
Market analysts are divided on what to expect from today’s meeting. Some predict the central bank will keep rates steady to anchor inflation expectations, while others believe another slight cut may be possible if macroeconomic indicators show stability and external reserves improve.
The decision will be closely watched by businesses, investors, and international partners, as it will indicate the SBP’s monetary stance and provide signals on how the government plans to navigate economic recovery, inflation control, and external account pressures.