The wealthy Arab states were anxious before the first election of Donald Trump in the year 2017 about the reduced US role in the Middle East looking desperately for new strategic partners, and they are now concerned about the expansionism of Israel with the support of the US and the Western countries.
With the exit of their last bet noire, Basharul Assad, they must be looking for a modus vivendi with the mini superpower in their region that Israel has emerged since the Abraham Accords by destroying the axis of resistance to its insatiable greed of usurping the Arab lands. Hamas, Hezbollah and other Iran-supported militias have been beaten to a pulp; the strategic influence of Iran and Russia from Iraq to the Mediterranean shores irredeemably reduced.
Russia, bogged down in the Ukrainian war acquiesced in the fall of Damascus on the tacit assurance of the safe exit of the Assads and the safety of its naval facility in the Tartus. China remained indifferent to the new complex situation emerging in the Levant which apparently had no direct impact on its new-found geopolitical, economic and strategic interests. The capture of power by the ideologically driven militias in Syria has made the geopolitical and geostrategic chessboard in the Middle East unpredictable. As a policy, China avoids wading into unchartered waters.
The fast-changing geopolitical and geostrategic dynamics at the regional and global levels would not wait for us.
Israel carried some 500 air raids on strategic positions in Syria during the turmoil leading to the fall of Damascus and destroyed over 80% of the military capability of the Syrian National Army including the defence arsenal of the country. These attacks were premeditated, well-planned and well-coordinated. Israel wanted to make sure that the new rulers would not be able to use the defence capability of the Syrian National Army whatever was left behind to resist its expansionist advances.
In his first term, Donald Trump aimed to create equilibrium between the Arab Sunni States and Israel through the Abraham Accords to contain Iran in the Middle East. This task was completed before the inauguration of his second term. Now, the balance of power is well tilted to Israel reducing Iran at an arm’s length. Would it be the end of Israel’s policy for the hegemonic control of the region? No definite answer. Given Israel’s history of land grabbing, its expansionism would continue unabated.
However, the balance of power, as put by Henry Kissinger, is never static and its components remain in constant flux. The US has been the balancing power in the Middle East, and it is very much dominant even today as shown by the events in Syria, forcing Russia and China to retreat. For some time, these powers would not be able to find a stronghold in the Middle East with Arabs going deeper into the US orbit and the security umbrella of Israel forgetting Nakba, Naksa, and Palestine. The barrenness of the Muslim world would continue to stare us in the face.
Earlier, the fluid Arab Spring and the apparent US fatigue in the Middle East impelled wealthy GCC states including Saudi Arabia and UAE to deepen their covert security relations with Israel and turn their labor-export oriented relations with India into a strategic partnership. However, the fact remains that these Arab States have more security threats from the Jewish state than Iran or any other state. Soon, there would be new subscribers to the Abraham Accords in a bid to live in a perceived peace with Israel. However, the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and Lebanon would be in a precarious security situation. The balkanization of Syria is on the anvil. Arab League and GCC are reduced to wheelchairs and the OIC is dead and buried.
China was emerging as the most important economic and strategic player in the Middle East gradually obscuring the most feared hegemonic menace of Iran in the Arab world, particularly after the establishment of a strategic outpost in Djibouti as part of its BRI. The Arabs, taking a cue from the US policy, were politically, economically and diplomatically investing in India to strengthen it as a countervail to China in their region. This cobweb of political, economic and strategic initiatives was bound to lead to the rebalancing of relations among the countries of the region, and India just grabbed this opportunity to deepen mutually beneficial relations with the wealthy Arab states, particularly the UAE.
The Indian antipathy to Pakistan is anchored in the bitter history of bilateral relations between the two countries. India has always tried to sabotage all the economic and trade schemes which could benefit Pakistan. The initiatives of some countries including Pakistan to import gas and electricity from Central Asian states and the expansion of CPEC in the region have fallen prey to Indian machinations. India’s strong foothold in Afghanistan and Iran its burgeoning relations with Gulf States, and our political and economic difficulties at home are bound to keep us at peripheral limits. No one in this Hobbesian world blows one’s trumpets.
When all this was taking place, our rulers were not looking beyond their businesses, plazas, palaces, properties and iqamas in Dubai. The right move at the right time is the sine quo non for success in diplomacy. The chessboard of diplomacy needs constant focus and clever moves. We could have done better than merely begging for economic aid from the Arab countries. We will be as vulnerable to destabilisation as any Arab country when the rogue man is saddled with power in January 2025.
Better to come out of our chronic complacency. The fast-changing geopolitical and geostrategic dynamics at the regional and global levels would not wait for us. We have to carve out a niche for ourselves. This would be possible if we resolutely focus on our political and economic Achilles heels. We know how to redeem our difficulties but have been lacking the political will to undertake this arduous exercise. The elite prospers while the teeming millions bear the brunt. Time to wake up. No eye will shed a tear on the pathetic condition of dear Pakistan.
The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books.