Different rumours around the internet speculate that the first nuclear test by Tehran caused the recent earthquake in Iran’s province of Semnan. Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). However, the current ongoing situation between Iran and Israel is sufficient to convince Iran of the need for a credible deterrence.
It will be difficult for Iran to pursue its interests in the region without such deterrence. It is hard to predict whether Iran will become a nuclear weapon state or not soon. However, it will have implications for the region if it becomes one, especially for its neighbouring country, Pakistan.
From the realist perspective, no state would like to have a powerful country in its neighbour and Pakistan is no exception. A nuclear Iran is not in the national interest of Pakistan and national interest stands above all other factors. Pakistan already has a nuclear-armed state in the East, India, and it would not like to have the same in the West.
Despite good relations with Iran, Pakistan would not like Iran to have a nuclear weapon because, in international relations, there are no permanent friends or foes. For example, one could not imagine before the 1979 Iranian revolution, Iran would stand against the USA. Similarly, Pakistan cannot predict its future relations with Iran. Moreover, a nuclear Iran would become a significant diplomatic challenge for Pakistan.
The competing interests of the great powers in the world have greatly influenced Pakistan’s foreign policy.
The competing interests of the great powers in the world have greatly influenced Pakistan’s foreign policy. The nuclearization of Iran will exacerbate the situation for Pakistan. Islamabad will have to carefully navigate the relationship between the USA and China.
The USA views nuclear Iran as a direct threat to its national interest, considering Iran’s behaviour towards the USA post-Iranian revolution. Furthermore, a nuclear Iran would be an existential threat to Israel, a key economic and strategic partner for the US in the region. Former Iranian President Rafsanjani, in a speech at Tehran University in December 2001, stated “On the day Iran comes into possession of a nuclear weapon, Israel will cease to exist”. Therefore, the USA would expect Pakistan to align its stance with them.
On the other hand, Pakistan’s growing ties with China mean that it cannot alienate Tehran in such circumstances. China shares a strong bond with Iran in many fields. In 1991, Iran succeeded in obtaining nuclear cooperation from China, providing the components of Uranium conversion. Iran reinitiated nuclear ambitions at Isfahan with the help of China.
During a recent meeting at the BRICS Summit held in Kazan between President Xi Jinping and President Masoud Pezeshkian, President Xi pointed out that whatever the situation is, China would unswervingly develop friendly cooperation with Iran. Therefore, it would not be favourable for Pakistan to adopt a stance against nuclear Iran at the cost of friendly relations with China.
The nuclearization of Iran would also lead to an arms race in the Middle East region, with countries like Saudi Arabia. Riyadh would also like to develop or acquire similar capabilities to maintain its influence in the region. It would put Islamabad in a difficult situation, given its deep economic and defence relations with Saudi Arabia.
In difficult times, Saudi Arabia has always supported Pakistan. Recently, when Pakistan was going through a serious economic condition, it was Saudi Arabia who helped Pakistan. Islamabad may feel pressurized to support Saudi Arabia in counterbalancing Iran. However, it will lead to strained relations with Tehran. A nuclear Iran would not only have diplomatic strains for Pakistan but could also promote sectarianism in the country.
Pakistan being a neighbour to Iran and a centre for Sunni-Shiite conflict will suffer more if Iran becomes a nuclear weapon state. A recent incident in Parachinar where more than 40 Shiite pilgrimages were killed shows the vulnerability of Pakistan to such conflict. Unfortunately, in the last four decades, Pakistan has become the battleground where both Saudi Arabia and Iran try to promote their version of Islam.
Iran with a nuclear weapon might come up with more strength to encourage Shiites in Pakistan. Such type of situation will have dire consequences not only for Pakistan but also for the whole Middle East region. Also, it is believed that the external powers might not be profoundly serious about containing intra-conflicts among Muslims.
The prospect of a nuclear Iran poses significant diplomatic, strategic, and sectarian challenges for Pakistan. The situation will require a balance in maintaining regional stability, protecting national sovereignty, and managing complex relations with global powers and Gulf states. In this situation, Islamabad should avoid taking sides in great power rivalries between the USA and China.
Pakistan should look forward to its long-term interests and remain neutral. Pakistan should also adopt a balanced approach because its fragile economic conditions do not allow it to join any bloc again. Islamabad should use its diplomatic relationships to mediate between Iran and other key stakeholders, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United States. Pakistan should implement stronger policies that promote inter-sectarian harmony to mitigate the potential sectarian conflict. Educational reforms can also help to eradicate such rifts.
The writer is a freelance columnist.