National security is an evolving concept and each country crafts security policies and sets goals in accordance with emerging threats. In this modern time, the concept of security has significantly changed as new threats continue to emerge in various forms and degrees. Once traditional security appeared to have dominated the national security paradigm, emerging non-traditional security threats have markedly altered the security dynamics of various countries. However, in a changing world, Pakistan is facing both external and internal security challenges in traditional and non-traditional domains of security.
Externally, threats emanating from changing global power dynamics will create security challenges for the country. With shifting winds of power from the West to the East, Pakistan will find itself in the eye of the geopolitical storm of great power competition. Although Pakistan is treading a fine line to avoid getting sucked into great power rivalry, the delicate balancing act towards the US and China is falling short because growing great power competition will shrink strategic space for the country in the long run and may compel policymakers to make a strategic choice between the US and China. In fact, by aligning with either of the two great powers, Pakistan will confront new security challenges because great powers can cloud the regional strategic environment.
With winds shifting from the West to the East, Pakistan will find itself in the eye of the geopolitical storm of great power competition.
Moreover, the Indo-US strategic partnership is another security challenge for the country. In its new security policy strategy, the US has given a greater role to India in its geopolitical combat against China. The US has elevated India’s status as a “net security provider” in the region, so it will help the latter to modernize its military and securitize the Indian Ocean Region. Similarly, India is also a member of the Quad alliance and it has increased its defence collaboration with the US against China. Growing strategic partnerships can embolden India to threaten Pakistan’s security because the Indo-US alliance can tilt the regional balance of power.
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, ideological shift in India can further compound regional security problems. Notwithstanding India’s claim to be a secular country, power usurpation by the BJP-RSS cohort, with ultranationalist sentiments, has greatly changed the nature and characteristics of the Indian state. The moderate and secular impulses seem to have stopped working because of growing Hindu nationalism and radical government. India is turning out to be a radical country on account of increasing extremist tendencies in both the government and the media. It can grossly influence the security objectives and regional policy of India which will increase the risk of strategic miscalculation in a crisis.
Similarly, Afghanistan is also a source of insecurity for the country. Just after the withdrawal of the US and coalition forces, the Afghan Taliban emerged at the helm of affairs in Afghanistan. Even though the Taliban’s victory sparked a wave of euphoria that Pakistan might gain strategic leverage vis-a-vis India in the region, the rising tide of terrorism in the country seemed to have increased the apprehension of the government and security apparatus that anti-Pakistan elements operating inside Afghanistan pose serious security threats to the country. Major militant outfits like the TTP and the IS-K, along with their splinter groups, tend to carry out sporadic terrorist activities across the country. It seems that the Taliban’s victory has inspired religious militant groups in the region, resulting in spillover radicalism.
In a fast-shifting world, modern technological advancement has dramatically changed the regional and global security landscape. With the development of Artificial Intelligence and autonomous weapons, new cyber security threats will emerge and make the country vulnerable to cyber terrorism. Cyber attacks can disrupt critical communication networks, thereby leading to the breach of national security data that perilously puts all security installations, banking systems and the information sector at risk.
Internally, Pakistan is also facing several security threats. The rise of sub-nationalism has created internal discord, fueling domestic terrorism in the country. The recent wave of militancy is fanning the flame of ethnic discontent that may turn the flames of hatred quickly into a raging inferno. When a multi-national country faces social polarization and ethnic division, its fault lines are exploited by hostile elements to gain leverage.
Along with growing internal discontent owing to ethno-nationalism, identity crisis, deteriorated state-society relations and political polarization are some other serious problems which may further complicate the law and order situation in the country. For a cohesive country, nationalism is the first line of defence and public support for the government and its institutions are key to meeting any internal or external challenge. Eroding public trust in national institutions appears to be a defining challenge for the country because a lack of public trust can compromise the effective operation and participatory engagement of national institutions.
In the 21st century, the concept of security has changed because non-traditional threats seem to be far more prominent and urgent than hard military-centric security challenges. Non-traditional threats will shape the security landscape of the country. Today, Pakistan is facing a range of non-traditional security challenges which include macro-economic instability, climate change, natural disasters, food crises, water shortages, energy crises, explosive population, resource scarcity and cyber threats.
Hence, both external and internal security threats deserve indiscriminate attention. A proactive foreign policy is to be crafted to overcome external challenges. Geo-economic statecraft is indeed a significant policy initiative that may facilitate the country in steering out of an unfolding geopolitical crisis. Furthermore, appreciating diversity, making equitable distribution of resources, promoting democratic culture and educating the youth are some measures to meet these challenges. Counter-terrorism policies can be placed along a spectrum more or less force in confronting terrorism. In conflict-ridden areas, it is necessary to ensure good governance and devise non-kinetic options like socio-economic development programs.
The writer is a strategic affairs and foreign policy analyst based in Islamabad.