South Asia is a region located in the southern part of Asia that is known for its religious variety and significant geographical significance. The region consists of seven countries, namely Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal, and Bhutan. According to a World Bank report, the total population of South Asia exceeds 1.8 billion people. India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are the most populated countries in the region. However, both Pakistan and Bangladesh are now experiencing significant political turmoil, which includes social unrest, ethnic inequities, and economic issues. This instability is not just impacting particular countries but also impacts on the entire region.
The removal of Bangladeshi Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, from her post is a recent event that illustrates the political turmoil in Bangladesh. Her ouster happened due to massive protests led by students against the job quota system. The High Court ruled that the government’s decision to abolish the contentious quota system in 2018 was controversial and unconstitutional. Consequently, the system was reinstated, leading to widespread protests. According to an Al-Jazeera report of 16 July 2024, 56 percent of public sector jobs are reserved under this quota system, including 30 percent for descendants of 1971 freedom fighters, 10 percent for women, 10 percent zila quota for backward districts, 5 percent for ethnic minorities, and 1 percent for people with disabilities. Only 44 percent of jobs are merit-based. The protests, which started on 1 July 2024 at the University of Dhaka, rapidly spread to other public institutions across Bangladesh. The protesters demanded the elimination of the 30 percent quota for the children of freedom fighters while supporting quotas for ethnic minorities and people with disabilities.
Both countries should focus on empowering their youth by providing them with skills, education, and employment.
The situation worsened when the ruling party attacked the student protesters. This escalated the tensions between the students and the governing bodies. On July 21, 2024, the Supreme Court mandated a decrease in the allocation percentage, reducing it from 30 percent to five percent for descendants of independence fighters, one percent for ethnic minorities, one percent for persons with disabilities and transgender individuals, while the remaining 93 percent of employment opportunities would be based on merit. Nevertheless, protesters continued their efforts, urged the government to apologize, and resigned. Amidst the unrest, Sheikh Hasina resigned on 5 August 2024 and fled to India with military assistance. Following her departure, hundreds of protesters entered her residence and raided the parliament. In response, the army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, promised to establish an interim government, led by Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus, to control the situation. As reported by Al-Jazeera on 7 August 2024, approximately 300 individuals were killed and thousands injured during a very turbulent phase of Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year tenure.
Since the ouster of former Prime Minister Imran Khan from power in April 2022, Pakistan has been facing significant political and economic instability in the country. Khan was removed from his post after a vote of no-confidence passed by the Parliament. Khan claimed that his removal was a US conspiracy as he denied cutting ties with China and Russia. However, the US denied its involvement in any conspiracy. After Khan’s removal, Shehbaz Sharif formed a government under the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), 13-party alliance, in the National Assembly.
Khan has faced many legal cases during the PDM government, including the corruption case of the Al-Qadir Trust, the Toshakhana case, and many illegal cases like murder, terrorism, etc. On 9 May 2023, Khan was detained by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) from the Islamabad High Court in the corruption case of Al-Qadir Trust. His arrest spearheaded massive protests across the country by his supporters who blamed the military behind his arrest. But the military denied any involvement behind his arrest and political troubles. In response, police arrested almost more than 2000 protestors. But the Supreme Court ordered his immediate release from imprisonment as his arrest was illegal. The Islamabad High Court also gave him pre-emptive bail in other cases related to corruption.
Khan was detained once again in Lahore on 5 August 2023, after being sentenced to three years in prison by an Islamabad Court for the unlawful sale of government gifts. Gradually, the allegations against him grew to include treason, unlawful marriage, instigating anti-state aggression, and promoting the destruction of military and governmental assets. Following the dissolution of Parliament, an interim government was established, with Anwar ul Haq who was sworn as the Prime Minister. During Kakar’s tenure, Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), saw a significant crackdown, including the abduction and expulsion of party members. Kakar also failed to carry out free and fair elections within 90 days after the dissolution of assemblies.
On January 13, 2024, the electoral symbol of PTI, which is the ‘Bat’, was banned due to their failure to conduct intra-party elections. As a result, PTI candidates were forced to take part in elections as independent candidates. However, candidates supported by PTI emerged winners with a decisive majority in the general elections held on 8 February 2024, as shown by the early Form 45 results. Nevertheless, as of 13 February 2024, the final Form 47 results indicated that the PMLN and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), together with their allies, had successfully established the new government, even though PTI-supported MPs emerged as the largest party in the parliament.
Pakistan is now grappling with a substantial economic crisis as a direct result of political instability within the country. The PTI leadership has formally requested the IMF to refrain from engaging in dialogue with Shehbaz’s government until a thorough investigation into the rigged General Elections of 2024 has been conducted. Pakistan’s economy relies heavily on the subsequent agreement made with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The continuing legal dispute about the differences between Form 45 and Form 47 is still a subjudice matter in the courts. Khan is still in prison facing many legal challenges. The UN has called for his release and the recent UN report concluded that his detention is arbitrary and in contravention of international law. All this chaos made Pakistan the most vulnerable and unstable state.
To mitigate the political turmoil in South Asia, political parties with the help of establishment divisions should focus more on political and economic challenges in both Bangladesh and Pakistan. Bangladesh has faced many vulnerabilities due to the recent protests that happened in July and the start of August 2024. Bangladeshi government should focus on key problems of their citizens by granting them their basic rights, to sustain political stability. On the other hand, the government of Pakistan with the help of law and enforcement agencies should resolve the issue of Form 45 and Form 47. The government should engage with the opposition, military, and policymakers to formulate a policy framework to put the country on the right track. The government should also negotiate with the founder of PTI to sustain peace and stability in the country. Both countries should focus on empowering their youth by providing them with skills, education, and employment. All these challenges faced by both governments must be addressed, by implementing strong governance systems across their respective countries, to make a stable and prosperous South Asia.
The writer is associated with the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad. He can be reached at [email protected]