The frontpage headline in this newspaper on Wednesday Mujhey kiyon nikala was ticklish but just a few hours earlier at a gathering a very serious question was raised by a very important journalist.
He repeatedly asked all of us, some journalists, some anchors and an odd minister, the question: Was Nawaz removed because of corruption?
His argument was that Nawaz was disqualified because of his Dubai job/Iqama and this is not a charge which comes under the definition of “corruption”.
There were many heated and well argued answers given. Some said it was corruption, well documented and mentioned in great detail in the SC judgment but trials were left for the lower courts as SC is not a trial court.
Others argued that the SC needed one undeniable, one uncontested fact, a confession, a blatant violation of his oath, a peg to hang the SC verdict on. The Iqama did it to become that final nail in the otherwise huge coffin of documents and money trails that was collected in the 10 volumes prepared by the JIT.
But our friend would still say he was not ousted on any corruption charge. One of us reminded him about the Al-Capone case and how the Chicago Don, after countless crimes, murders, gang wars was finally nabbed for a tax violation and sent to jail for 11 years. Yes that is true, he admitted.
I then asked all: “Do you sincerely believe that Nawaz Sharif is not corrupt?” The answer was a big No. So when we all agreed that he had a long history of alleged corruption, not yet proven, it went to the Supreme Court’s credit that he was caught just as Al-Capone was.
Justice had been delivered by justices on a proven point of law, though we all know the big elephant in the room was years of reported loot and plunder.
The Al-Capone case is also interesting in some other ways. According to Wikipedia: “Following his release (after serving an 11 year term) he never publicly returned to Chicago. He had become mentally incapable of returning to gangland politics. In 1946, his physician and a Baltimore psychiatrist, after examination, both concluded Capone then had the mentality of a 12-year-old child. Capone resided on Palm Island with his wife and immediate family, in a secluded atmosphere, until his death due to a stroke and pneumonia on January 25, 1947.”
An added fact was that Capone’s brother Ralph ‘Bottles’ Capone was also charged with tax evasion.
Bit by bit the Nawaz elephant was identified and then allowed to pass through the noose but its twisted tail got stuck leaving the virtual animal hanging by its tail. It was determined that the chips would fall in place in time. All knew the law will eventually catch up.
This simple depiction of a complex case has many lessons and many warnings for a lot of others, including those who may at present be feeling happy, comfortable or even hopeful that once Nawaz is out of the arena, they might get a second chance.
One most obvious leader waiting in the wings, applying all his tricks, his magical skills, his clout and whatever political leverage he has gathered, is Asif Ali Zardari who has flown back to Lahore amid speculations that Nawaz needs him and has promised a lot, even the presidency or the prime ministership if Zardari would join and rescue him.
One wrong step, one miscalculation like his brick-by-brick speech, one mistake and it will need one judicial, political or social activist to push Zardari into room where the big elephant sits
For Zardari the lesson in the fall of Nawaz is an extremely dangerous precedent. Nawaz was unlucky, dumb or ill-advised to have fallen in the Panama trap. Zardari is a smart cookie. He may not try to come on the left side of an angry establishment again.
In 2008, he was smart enough not to go for the PM’s slot as that would have exposed him to unending scrutiny. He opted for the presidency because it allowed him immunity and also spared him from declaring his assets. Now that the Nawaz case has proved that a JIT could collect company names, account numbers, property addresses and local and foreign accomplices, the most scared man in Pakistan would be Mr Zardari.
To catch him would be a much simpler job, easily executed. He is on record that he owned the Surrey Palace when it was returned through the NRO, he admitted his Swiss account and quickly moved the $60 million that was released, the Internet is full of lists of his local and foreign properties and at least 27 bank names and accounts. Whether these are real or fake would not be hard to determine.
Zardari knows that his acts of commission and public confessions are many. The NRO saved him in the past but if he were to open himself to scrutiny now, he would no longer be protected.
One wrong step, one miscalculation like his bricks-by-bricks speech, one mistake and it will need one judicial, political or social activist to push Zardari into the big elephant’s room.
So whatever efforts Nawaz may make to seduce or entice Zardari, he will never come close. He will never run for any office and think a 100 times to allow his kids to declare family assets, or dad’s secrets. If Bilawal or any family member runs for any elected office, the data books will have to be opened and there lies the catch. The elephant will be waiting.
The writer is a senior journalist. Twitter: @Ssehbai1
Published in Daily Times, August 18th 2017.